The BNP Paribas Brokerage House has published the “Investment Topics 2026” report, which includes six scenarios regarding next year's behavior of global economies, as well as stock, debt and raw material markets. Where can the risk-reward ratio be most profitable and what sectors are worth keeping in mind? We present a brief overview of BNP experts' forecasts.
BNP Paribas experts expect that in 2026, economic activity around the world will grow at a solid pace, and the factors supporting global GDP are, among others, the fading impact of uncertainty related to trade wars, interest rate cuts and fiscal policy supporting markets.
Analysts assess the economic prospects of the EU economies particularly positively. The announced investments by the German government may affect the condition of the entire block. In the US, inflation is expected to remain stable above the Fed's target, which will translate into further, although less frequent, rate cuts. According to NBP experts, one cut will take place in October 2026.
The Polish economy was presented in the report as relatively resistant to external turmoil thanks to strong consumption and the inflow of funds from the EU. Inflation is expected to fall below 3.0%, which should allow interest rates to be reduced to 3.5% by mid-year. The Polish zloty is expected to remain strong, with the forecast EUR/PLN exchange rate around 4.20.
On the raw materials market, BNP analysts continue to be positive about precious metals. As they emphasized in the report, despite the strong boom this year, the factors behind the increases are not exhaustive. In their positive scenario, gold prices could reach approximately USD 5,000 within 12 months. They also evaluate selected industrial metals (such as copper) positively. The negative assessment of the outlook for crude oil was maintained. BNP analysts predict further consolidation around USD 60 per barrel.
Stock markets in 2026 – pursue profits, but carefully
In the area of stock markets, the first topic from BNP Paribas analysts is to maintain positive assumptions regarding further growth, but at the same time to increase caution. Although the upward trend since autumn 2022 is likely to continue, according to the report's authors, investors must take into account increased volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.
Therefore, BNP analysts suggest reaching, among others, for: to structured products with capital protection and equity solutions (shares, equity funds, ETF funds) with exposure to the global stock market, but with a smaller share of US technology companies, with additional currency hedging. Geographical diversification was also indicated as important for security and shifting the weight of the portfolio towards defensive sectors such as health care, infrastructure and public utilitiesas well as a selective approach to small and medium-sized dividend companies.
“The main risks under this investment theme include a scenario in which defensive portfolios will not keep up with further strong market growth (if the growth of the largest American technology companies is maintained), as well as a recessionary scenario in which a deeper than expected slowdown in the US could end the current boom (however, we would like to point out that this is not our base scenario),” noted BM BNP Paribas analysts.
Long markets and the most important topic: artificial intelligence
As for the second topic, the debt market, BNP analysts expect that falling interest rates will force investors to move away from passively keeping funds on deposits. In their opinion, opportunities can be found in emerging market bonds in local currencies and in the debt of the financial sector in the euro zone..
The evolution of artificial intelligence remains a breakthrough topic, which is entering a phase that goes beyond the enthusiasm surrounding the largest technology companies. The new stage focuses on the energy infrastructure necessary for the operation of data centers and the so-called AI agents – autonomous systems capable of making decisions on their own. In connection with Sectors related to energy generation, transmission infrastructure, energy storage, and nuclear energy may be worth considering.
The AI trend is also related to the fourth topic from BNP Paribas, i.e. the growing shortage of raw materials. According to experts, the demand for strategic raw materials and industrial metals such as copper is here to stay. – The easiest way to take advantage of the imbalance in the balance of demand and supply is through direct exposure to raw materials, e.g. through ETF funds or structured products. – say analysts.
The last topic from the BNP Paribas BM report is also the most geographically distant. Analysts point to the potential of Asian markets, in particular China, Japan, India, Taiwan and South Korea. Despite solid results in 2025, Asian companies still have much lower valuations than their American competition. They also play an important role in the global supply chain of semiconductors, automation and batteries for electric vehicles. What may harm this forecast are primarily geopolitics, trade tensions and the Chinese real estate sector.
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