Amid harsh rhetoric from US President Donald Trump and signals of a reconsideration of Washington's NATO commitments, the EU is accelerating the creation of its own defense mechanisms.
Decisions to support Ukraine are increasingly being made in the format of a “coalition of the willing,” coordinated by Great Britain, France and Germany. In parallel, the strengthening of the “European pillar” in NATO and the development of structures like the Joint Expeditionary Force are being discussed.
A senior European defense official said talks with U.S. officials over security guarantees for Ukraine had become “awkward.” More importantly, the official said, so did the discussion of Article 5, the clause in the NATO treaty that obliges allies to provide each other with protection if one of its members is attacked. Uncertainty about how the United States would respond if a border state was attacked is too high, the official said.
The situation has worsened with the publication of the new US National Security Strategy, which describes Europe as a region “changing under the pressure of migration” and potentially becoming a “less reliable ally.” Trump echoed those assessments in a recent interview, saying European leaders “don't know what to do,” Politico notes.
Against this background, the EU is discussing the creation of its own security mechanisms in case NATO’s Article 5 comes into question. At the same time, there is a growing understanding that Europe will have to quickly strengthen its own military capabilities. European intelligence and military officials are warning that the risk of a possible Russian attack before 2028 is forcing the country to abandon its previous dependence on the United States. Germany is already holding consultations with France on the role of the French nuclear arsenal in the future European security system.
While U.S. diplomats continue to argue that the U.S. commitment to NATO is “cast in stone,” the EU acknowledges that replacing key U.S. capabilities—from intelligence to heavy lifting—will be extremely difficult in the coming years.
As a result, European capitals are already accelerating defense reforms, increasing spending and creating new formats for cooperation. Europe is preparing for an era in which it will have to rely primarily on its own strength, the publication writes.
Context
On 7 November 2024, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Trump is pushing Europe to spend more on defense.
On December 20, the Financial Times wrote that after taking office in January 2025, Trump is likely to demand that member countries increase defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product (GDP).
January 22, 2025, the head of the European Defense Agency (EDA) Kaja Kallas called on EU countries to increase investment in defense not only to prevent war, but also to be prepared for it. After all, according to intelligence services, the aggressor country Russia can attack Europe within three to five years. According to Kallas, Moscow spends almost five times more budget funds than Brussels. According to European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius, Russia will spend this year 40% of the federal budget is for defense and security, which is 9% of GDP.
On February 1, then US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said that Trump administration will put pressure on allies according to NATO, which do not increase defense spending.
On August 28, the NATO press service reported that in 2025 all member countries of the Alliance increased their defense spending.
On December 5, the United States threatened the Europeans that they could abandon part of their NATO obligations, Reuters wrote.
