2025-12-07 10:00
publication
2025-12-07 10:00
A cyber attack on the energy infrastructure in Poland, which would lead to a blackout lasting 72 hours, would cost the Polish economy PLN 80 billion, says the Danish bank Saxo in its “shocking forecast” for 2026 published on Tuesday. This institution publishes reports every year that are not traditional forecasts but “thought exercises”.
According to the authors of the study, in such a hypothetical situation the concept of a “blackout tax” may appear in Polandand the prices of large energy companies may fall by 40-60%.
The presented scenario includes, among others: suspension of work by the mines and expenses of several million on complicated system restart procedures. This then causes a shock in the financial industry and suspension of trading on the stock exchange, and after resumption of trading, a decline in bank shares by 15-25%. During this time, ATMs and payment systems stop working, and credit risk for companies increases dramatically.
In the presented variant, the crisis spreads to logistics and retail trade as well as heavy industry. Cement and steel producers are exposed to emergency shutdowns. This may further result in an outflow of foreign capital and a weakening of the Polish zloty by 5-10%. against major currencies due to the need to import energy and the collapse of the trade balance. The next step is to increase the yield of treasury bonds by 50-100 basis points.
War, crisis, evacuation? “This is the last good moment, because tomorrow it may be worse, more difficult and more expensive”
Only nine meals separate us from anarchy – this is one of the favorite quotes of our guest Krzysztof Lis, who has been advising on how to prepare for the unknown for over a dozen years. This is a conversation about why it is worth having two zloty coins, bitcoin and a few used wedding rings in an evacuation backpack, whether it is possible to swallow food rations that are 10 years out of date, and when and to whom to evacuate.
For the first time this year, the Danish-based bank Saxo took Poland into account in its “shocking scenarios” for the future. This institution publishes reports every year, which are not traditional forecasts, as it states, but “thought exercises”. With their hypotheses, the authors want to broaden the perspective and encourage reflection on possible challenges facing the global economy.
In the case of Poland, the inspiration came from the cases of serious blackouts in the south of France, Spain and Portugal in spring.
In another scenario for 2026, China will dominate the US dollar in global trade settlements by introducing a “gold yuan”, a currency directly linked to gold. Beijing is expected to have unexpectedly more of this metal than official US reserves.
The next hypothesis assumed that the wedding of the American singer Taylor Swift with her fiancé would create a trend for marriage and children. Other events include: the collapse of cryptocurrencies, the era of the space economy or the first case when an artificial intelligence model becomes the president of one of the most powerful companies. In this field, it was assumed that a new profession of “AI janitors” could be created, i.e. controllers of faulty systems and algorithms that impede the functioning of society. (PAP)
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