“Romania can be influenced by the big global negotiations, but the real risk comes from within”. The dangers that should make politicians think

General (r) Alexandru Grumaz, the officer trained by Americans at Harvard University, explains to what extent the risk is real that Romania will relive the scenarios of 1940, with territorial losses and from Yalta, but also what are the real problems we are facing.

A defeat of Ukraine in the war with Russia can complicate Romania's situation. PHOTO: Freepik

The uncertain situation of Ukraine, which is increasingly resisting Russia's attacks, but especially the unpredictability of the US foreign policy, causes a justified concern in Romania, all the more so since we recently witnessed the resizing of American troops on the eastern flank of Europe. All this at a time when in the great European chancelleries the word war is being spoken more and more often, and numerous experts have compared the current situation with that of the interwar period. But beyond some similarities there are also many differences from what happened more than eight decades ago.

Romania's nightmare since 1940

At that time, Romania lost one by one Northwest Transylvania, claimed by Hungary, but also Bessarabia and Bucovina in the North and Northeast, snatched from the former Soviet Union, respectively the Quadrilateral, in the Southeast, which returned to Bulgaria.

Everything was possible because of the weaknesses shown by our allies, France and the United Kingdom, the armies of the two great powers being subsequently destroyed by Nazi Germany in just a few months, but also because Romania's relations with the United States of America at that time were practically non-existent.

Arc over time, the place of the former Soviet Union is taken by the Russian Federation. Even if the Russians do not issue claims to today's territory of Romania, Moscow's aggressive policy intimidates the countries on NATO's eastern flank. At the same time, Romania's European allies, France, the United Kingdom and Germany, seem in many situations divided, and their armed forces are greatly undersized, after decades of flourishing peace. And also to the similarities with the situation in the 40s of the last century, the Romanian-American bilateral relations can also be mentioned, which, beyond the triumphalist declarations of the authorities, are very far from the level at which those between the United States of America and Poland are, but also between the USA and other states in the proximity of our country. And here the best evidence is given by the fact that while no American military was withdrawn from Poland, and Washington supplemented its troops from Greece, in Romania we had that “resizing”, in fact a withdrawal covered in diplomatic terms.

Last but not least, after more than 10 months since Donald Trump's return to power, the long-awaited meeting with President Nicușor Dan is still delayed, and Romanian officials do not even know when it could take place. This while Donald Trump has already met repeatedly with other heads of state on the Eastern flank, the Polish president Karol Nawrocki and the Finnish president, Alexander Stubb, or even the Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban.

Obviously, there are also a lot of differences compared to the situation in 1940, starting with the fact that Romania is a member of NATO and the EU, and the balance of forces is in favor of the North Atlantic Alliance, no matter who the hypothetical opponent is.

In order to establish to what extent the current situation resembles or may even become identical to the one at the dawn of the Second World War or the situation immediately after the great conflagration (the Yalta moment), “Adevărul” calls on the expertise of General (retd) Alexandru Grumaz, the first Romanian officer trained at high schools in the United States, including Harvard.

Why are we in a different position today?

General Grumaz admits that Romania is in a not very good situation, and the international context does not look good. Still, he says, there are some notable differences from the way things looked towards the end of the interwar period.

“Although the comparison may seem justified on an emotional level, the strategic reality is much different and much more favorable to Romania than in the interwar period. At that time, the country was isolated, without functional alliances, surrounded by hostile states and faced with an army unprepared for the challenges of the moment. Today, Romania is a member of NATO and the European Union, part of the most powerful collective defense system that ever existed, which gives it security guarantees that did not exist in 1940”. says General Grumaz.

However, he does not lose sight of the highly complicated geopolitical context and the actions of a Russia that proved unpredictable when it attacked Ukraine.

“However, the regional context remains serious. Russia adopts an aggressive foreign policy, the war in Ukraine continues to destabilize the eastern flank, and some neighboring states show sympathies or political interests close to Moscow. The ambivalent position of Hungary, the traditional relationship between Serbia and Russia or the political instability in Bulgaria can fuel the perception of a Romania surrounded by countries with uncertain orientations. At the same time, the fragile situation of the Republic of Moldova and the constant pressure on Ukraine add a level additional risk”, says the general.

The great dangers come from the incompetence of politicians

But this does not mean that Romania is on the brink of war or that Russia will attack a NATO country. The North Atlantic Alliance is the main guarantee that Moscow's ambitions cannot exceed a certain level.

“However, Romania's security is not seriously threatened in the sense of a direct aggression. NATO's eastern flank remains active, collective defense works, and any attack on Romania would automatically trigger the military solidarity of the entire alliance. In addition, Romania benefits from modern military infrastructure, constant allied exercises and deterrence measures that maintain a strategic balance in the region. Challenges exist – especially in the area of information warfare, cyber attacks and pressure hybrids, but they do not equate to the existential vulnerability of 1940. Therefore, Romania faces a complicated security environment, but fundamentally different from that of almost a century ago”, adds General Grumaz.

The great dangers at this moment come mainly from within, but also from the slowness that Romania shows when the politicians talk endlessly about the establishment of a strong deterrent force, but the actions still leave much to be desired.

“The real risk is not an imminent invasion, but the erosion of domestic confidence, information manipulation, and delayed military modernization. The strength of alliances and the state's ability to remain vigilant, coherent and connected to European dynamics are the elements that concretely ensure the country's stability and security”.
warns General Grumaz.

A new Yalta is no longer possible in 2025

General Alexandru Grumaz does not support the idea that Romania, as well as other Eastern European states, could be abandoned by NATO and the European allies at the mercy of the Russian Federation. The fear of a new Yalta moment is not justified, believes General Alexandru Grumaz.

“Romania cannot today be “negotiated” between the great powers in the way it happened in the last century. Membership in NATO and the European Union places it in a legal and strategic framework that cannot be changed by secret or bilateral agreements. The great powers can have extensive strategic discussions, but they cannot take decisions that affect Romania's sovereignty or status without violating fundamental international treaties. The current reality is that Romania is not alone, and collective security mechanisms protect it of “Yalta” or “1940” type scenarios”points out the general.

But there is also a “but”. Although Romania can no longer be ceded as a barter, its destiny can be seriously influenced by the results of negotiations between the great powers.

“But Romania can be indirectly influenced by the big global negotiations – such as those between the US and China, the US and Russia or the European Union and Russia – through changes in the pace of support for Ukraine, in the allied military presence in the region or in the strategic priorities of the partners, but this does not equate to “negotiations for Romania”“, concludes General Alexandru Grumaz.

Who is General Grumaz?

General (r) Alexandru Grumaz is a graduate of the US Defense University with a master's degree in Defense Resource Strategy and the Senior Executives program in National and International Security, John F Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

General (r) Alexandru Grumaz

Former consul general of Romania in Shanghai, the general held important positions in the Ministry of National Defense as head of the Directorate of Defense Resources Management, director of the Directorate of Integrated Defense Planning or Inspector for Armaments. Grumaz held the position of first assistant to the Director of STS, being a specialist in telecommunications.

He has expertise in strategic planning, international military and civilian relations, and experience in complex budget planning and management for an organization. He is a good connoisseur of political and military life in China and the United States of America where he spent part of his military and diplomatic career. He is currently the president of the Center for Analysis and Security Studies.