People who use phrases like: “I think it's likely – about 60% likely,” they can be exceptionally intelligent. Expressing yourself in this way is a manifestation of something that in scientific research is often associated with higher mental performance and better decisions. This is probabilistic thinking, which – according to researchers – is the key to success.
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As reported by schwaebische.de, research conducted as part of the Good Judgment Project showed that the best participants, the so-called “super forecasters”were not only characterized by high intelligence, but also openness to different perspectives. They regularly updated their predictions, expressing them in the form of probabilities.
Research on numeracy and cognitive reflection has yielded similar results – people who can think in numerical terms and stop to think about their intuitive responses make better decisions, both financially and health-wise.
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As schwaebische.de explains, people who think probabilistically rarely use statements like “it will definitely happen.” Instead, they say, “I estimate there is a 70 percent chance of success, but if X occurs, that drops to 50 percent.”
This way, their statements are more precise and open to change. Similarly, instead of saying “this study proves it,” they prefer to say: “The evidence is favorable, but the quality of the sample suggests 60-65 percent confidence.”
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Probabilistic thinking forces you to be more precise and verify your predictions. Thanks to this, people who use this method learn faster from mistakes and cope better in situations of uncertainty.
This is not a sign of lack of self-confidence, but rather evidence of the ability to realistically assess the situation. As research shows, this approach leads to more accurate decisions and greater effectiveness in action.
Probabilistic thinking is not just a tool for scientists or analysts – it is a skill that each of us can develop to better cope with everyday life.
