PiS and KO conventions. Kaczyński and Tusk's dilemma. Two options for elections [OPINIA]
Proposals from the programming convention, such as a housing voucher up to PLN 200,000. PLN is polling and reaction research two years before the elections. It is no coincidence that the relevant and flagship promises for the electoral battle were formulated much later – 500 plus PiS announced a year before the election, and the so-called Kaczyński's Five (including reducing PIT and introducing 500 plus for each child) was formulated in 2019, i.e. already in the election year. – We already have low taxes. Procedures need to be simplified – said Jarosław Kaczyński, closing the convention, sending a signal in which direction he would like to go. There were several similar signals.
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The vision of “Solidarity Poland” against “egoistic liberals” – this is Jarosław Kaczyński's dream clash. He has won the dispute arranged in this way several times. He lost when KO finally convinced Poles that “nothing given will be taken away.” Now, however, PiS's social maneuver may prove impossible to repeat.
Solidarity versus liberal Poland. Is this fight going to end?
Generous social promises allowed PiS to break through subsequent barriers of support at the peak of its popularity. They helped us survive political crises. Now Jarosław Kaczyński could go in this direction again. A kind of test of such offers is the idea of a housing voucher, which for families with three children would amount to up to PLN 200,000. zloty.
Kaczyński is aware that making big, long-lasting campaign promises, and then ultimately unfulfilled, is a game of matches when it comes to forming a government. He warned activists against this in a veiled way during his convention speech, blaming Donald Tusk's team for it. With Confederation consistently encircling PiS from the right, the loss of “social credibility” would strengthen the formation of Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak at the expense of PiS.
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Looking for social space
Kaczyński's party could be willing to play “va banque” – to launch a broad social program to mobilize those who went to the polls in 2019 and 2020. Given the current state of the budget, there is no space for this, but PiS may nevertheless make a risky attempt to increase spending (officially while looking for further revenues, although the current announcement of tightening taxes and reducing bureaucracy through artificial intelligence sounds as spectacular as it is mysterious and problematic).
At the same time, PiS will certainly try to ignore the excessive deficit procedure stipulated in the EU treaties. In his speech, Kaczyński clearly emphasized that the current EU structures are a threat to Poland – the dispute with Brussels is today a clearly defined front, not really hidden by PiS politicians.
A strong return to social policy would give at least a shadow of a chance for an independent or almost independent majority, without regard to strong coalition partners. Today, however, we are counting on a miracle — yes, PiS achieved an independent majority in 2015 with a relatively small result, 37.5%, but currently it is not even close to this level in the polls, and then he owed it to the Left and KORWiN diving under the threshold. Now such a scenario seems impossible. A similar story would have to repeat itself, e.g. with the Left and Polska 2050 and PSL. And even that may not provide even a shaky majority. Especially since Donald Tusk – which was embodied in the KO convention – would like to consolidate the current government camp further than including Nowoczesna and Inicjatywa Polska and reach at least Poland 2050.
Will the lack of an alternative to the new KO for voters who are primarily reluctant to PiS but distrustful of Donald Tusk's policy make them stay at home? This is a key question for formulating the Coalition's economic program for the upcoming elections. For now, Donald Tusk in his speech focused on an emotional, consolidating message, emphasizing closeness with the EU and security issues.
Donald Tusk's most important task today is to maintain the majority and control of the government – this is what the Prime Minister himself used to say during a conversation with Kuba Wojewódzki and Piotr Kędzierski in the Onet podcast. He has just taken a symbolic step in this direction, but maybe it is too little to think about re-election.
Coalition instead of promises?
PiS faces a dilemma as to whether its election promises should not increase the room for maneuver in reaching an agreement with the Confederation. And this would mean looking for incentives to reduce taxes, which has already been encouraged by, among others, young PiS activists in their report, it would be a bridge facilitating a later coalition. In a more distant scenario, there may also be a polling of parts of the PSL – it is not without reason that PiS's criticism of this party has weakened somewhat.
However, Kaczyński is not and certainly will not get used to adapting to smaller formations. He won't give up the field easily to let the “tail wag the dog”. Naturally, the first scenario will be to influence the Confederation rather than succumb to its ideological tendencies. To some extent, the PiS leader could see sense in this. In his speech inaugurating the convention, he devoted a surprising amount of space to the difficult situation of public finances. Since it would not be possible to make too generous promises anyway, a kind of “nod” to the Confederation would seem spontaneous. And it would certainly help in a possible draft of joint letters to the Senate.
It remains an open question to what extent Jarosław Kaczyński felt sorry for the state budget only a dig at the government, and to what extent is it an actual concern for the situation in the context of a possible exercise of power.
However, giving up social demands is only a seemingly safer maneuver for the future of Kaczyński's party. Even in times of limited public finances, PiS cannot afford to break with the identity of a specific right-wing social party – too large a group of voters he supports it precisely because of this feature. Giving up on clear fiscal promises would raise the risk of the program being too different from both KO and Confederation, with which, after all, the “government of souls” on the right wing competes.
Is it possible to eat the Confederation and have the Confederation?
Including further social promises into the public debate may help Kaczyński's party play on the division within the Confederation. It is an open secret that PiS would be much more willing to seek an agreement with the nationalists of Bosak than the liberals of Mentzen. In this context, the discrepancy that appears from time to time between the two leaders of the Confederation could be an opportunity for PiS. And various ideas thrown at public opinion could help Kaczyński in this.
