Poor mood in the construction industry. The lowest result in over 2 years

The EFL Barometer sub-index for construction for the fourth quarter of 2025 was 51.3 points, which means a decrease of 5.5 points. compared to the previous quarter. This is a signal of cooling mood in the sector, we read in the report published on Tuesday.

“The EFL Barometer sub-index for construction for the fourth quarter of 2025 was 51.3 points, which means a decrease of 5.5 points compared to the previous quarter. This is the lowest result in over 2 years (in the third quarter of 2023 it was 48 points) and a signal of cooling moods in the sector,” the EFL report said.

It shows that in the fourth quarter of 2025 only 16 percent construction companies forecast an increase in sales, compared to 35 percent quarter earlier. The remaining entrepreneurs (84%) expect the current level of revenues to be maintained. Weaker sales forecasts also translate into worse financial liquidity assessments. Only 12.5 percent companies expect it to improve (compared to 33% in the third quarter). The remaining 87.5 percent counts on a similar situation as in the third quarter of this year.

“In the fourth quarter of 2025, only 5 percent of construction companies plan to increase investment expenditure, while in the previous quarter it was almost four times as much (19 percent). Moreover, as many as 29 percent of companies indicate a reduction in investments. Most companies (66 percent) expect to maintain the level of investment,” the report said.

It also shows that interest in external financing has slightly increased. 7.5 percent companies declare an increase in demand in this area, a quarter earlier it was less than 3%. This may mean that some enterprises use external funds to maintain current liquidity during a period of lower investment activity.

The value of the main EFL Barometer index for the fourth quarter of 2025 was 53.4 points. The level achieved is by 1.9 points. higher than in the third quarter of 2025. The EFL barometer is a synthetic indicator informing about the tendency of SME sector companies to grow (i.e. development understood as companies setting goals related to sales and production growth, expansion into new markets and profit maximization, which is related to investments in fixed assets).

The financial condition of SMEs forecasted for a given quarter provides a reference point for drawing conclusions about the expected direction of changes that favor growth or inhibit the development of companies. The survey is prepared by Ecorys on behalf of Europejski Fundusz Leasingowy SA, and its results are published quarterly. Its participants are micro, small and medium-sized companies from all over Poland. A representative group of 600 micro, small and medium-sized companies took part in the study. The current edition of the study took place from September 1 to 24, 2025. (PAP)

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