This is how Polish public debt will increase. The Ministry of Finance publishes a projection
“The forecast account of the debt of the government and local government sector (according to the EU definition) to GDP will be 59.8 percent. in 2025 and 65.4 percent in 2026which means that the reference value of the EDP debt to GDP at 60 percent. It will be exceeded in 2026. In the strategy horizon, this relationship will increase to 75.3 percent. in 2029 ” – we read in the MFIG document.
According to some economists, the level of 60 percent However, it can be exceeded in 2025. A lot depends on what the size of the deficit will be (it is financed with the debt), and in this respect the finance ministry forecasts in the last were too optimistic and the final data turned out to be higher.
The strategy was developed assuming that in the years 2027-2029 the service and purchase of bonds issued by BGK for the Covid-19 Counteracting Fund and the Polish Fund for the Fund within the financial shield will take place from the Covid-19 Counteracting Fund funds obtained by issue of bonds.
“At the assumptions adopted, the forecast ratio of public public debt to GDP will be 48.9 percent in 2025 and 5 percent in 2026, and then will increase, exceeding the level of 55 % in 2027 and in the horizon forecast reaching 59.5 percent” MFIG said. This means that the constitutional 60 percent threshold For now, our provisions refer to the definition of state debt, i.e. PDP).
Against the background of EU countries, Poland is negatively distinguished by the size of the deficit, but the public debt for GDP is below the average and well below the most indebted countries.
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Eurostat, PKO Research
The document also indicates that due to the forecast for 2028, exceeding by Public debt of the caution threshold, which is included in the Public Finance Act and amounts to 55 percent. GDP, There may be launching precautionary procedures that would enter into force in 2030.
Pursuant to the Public Finance Act, if the public debt exceeds 55 percent. GDP, in the year following a year of announcement of this indicator, a budget without a deficit or with a deficit ensuring a decrease in debt to GDP is adopted, there is no increase in the remuneration of employees of the state budgetary sphere, and the valorisation of pensions and pensions cannot exceed the level of inflation for the previous year.
“Established in the draft budget act for 2025, the limit of SP debt costs is PLN 90 billion, i.e. 2.2 percent. GDP. The strategy assumes that debt service costs will increase to 2.6-2.7 percent. GDP in 2029, “said the Ministry of Finance.
