“I'll let you know in a month.” A breakthrough phrase or just a clever donald Trump? Experts are afraid of one [ANALIZA]
“I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is able to fight and Win all of Ukraine back in its original form” – Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, calling the Moscow army a” paper tiger “.
Experts, however, remain divided as to whether this return is signaling A real change in politics to ensure Ukraine what he needs to winand Trump's abandonment of existing mediation attempts.
– This is a huge rhetorical change – said prof. Samuel Greene, political scientist from King's College London. Greene noticed that despite the changing rhetoric of Trump regarding the war since the office, one thing remained unchanged: His belief that Ukraine will have to conclude an agreement by sacrificing the territory.
“This is the first time he publicly said that it could not be the only result,” he continued. – Having said it, he changed [zdanie] Earlier … I think that It would be unreasonably assumed that it will now be a permanent view.
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Mikhail Troicki, visiting a professor of security studies at Tufts University in Massachusetts, in an interview with The Moscow Times suggests that the president's words should be treated honestly. “I wouldn't underestimate Trump's rhetorical announcements as a cheap talk,” he says.
Experts say that For Trump, this announcement can be a strategic play. On the one hand, it may potentially make the Kremlin to take a negotiating position if Putin decides that the US no longer stick to his narrative.
On the other hand, recognizing the EU as a military benefactor of Ukraine, Trump can distance the US from the negotiating processwhich, despite months of shuttle diplomacy and a loud peak in Alaska, did not even lead to Putin's meeting with Zelanski.
– The narrative around what he says has changed, but It still seems to be about distanceing the US from conflict conduction – Reuter told Reuter Neil Melvin, director of international security at the British Think Tank Royal United Services Institute. – He throws him back to Europe all the time.
Donald Trump is fed up with Putin's attitudes
The USA, Ukraine and three European countries have recently signed a multi -million agreement on weapons to maintain American ammunition delivered to Kiev, the cost of which is estimated at $ 825 million. [ok. 3 mld zł].
Zelnski accepted Trump's support, noticing that Both leaders have improved their relationships since a quarrel in the oval office in February.
President Donald Trump and the President of Ukraine Wołodymyr Zelnski during a meeting at the UN headquarters in New York, September 23, 2025.Ukrainian Presidential Press / PAP
– I think we have better [relacje] than before – he said after meeting Trump at the beginning of this week. – I think the fact that Putin lied to President Trump so many times also contributed to the change between us.
On the other hand, Trump expressed the growing frustration towards Putin. On Monday, he refused to comment on whether he still trusts the Russian leader, saying: – I will let you know in about a month, okay?
In his post, Trump attributed his revelation to the evolving understanding the military and economic situation of Ukraine and Russia.
Tatiana Stands from Think Tank Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, she emphasized on the platform x [dawniej Twitter]that the change in Trump's thinking about the war actually reflects “new realities”.
“This spring and summer in the West, there were doubts whether Ukraine could persist,” she wrote. However, despite the gradual achievements in the east of Ukraine, The Russian army failed to achieve a strategic breakthrough this summer And it is hard to imagine that Ukrainians ever accept Putin's conditions regarding the end of hostilities. What's more, the Russian economy is on more and more unstable foundations, which can force Putin to finally end the war.
Prof. Troicki notices Trump's frustration with a lack of progress since his meetings with four eyes with Putin and Zelanski last month. – disappointed in progress in peace negotiations, in particular with the Kremlin's uncompromising position, Trump probably asked his advisers about possible ways to put additional pressure on Moscow – says. – Now well -informed Trump advisors told him that if the types of weapons are delivered to Ukraine, Kiev may have a chance to regain land from Russia.
The Kremlin was counting on Russia's mediation approach of Donald Trump, so changing Trump's attitude can cause serious concern in the Kremlin
– he adds.
A step towards peace in Ukraine or escalation?
In this matter, Moscow accepted a balanced tone in response to the words of Trump, and the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Pieskow rejected the label of Russia for the forces as a “paper tiger” and the view that Ukraine can regain the territory.
– Mr. Trump He heard about what was happening from a Zelanski perspective. And apparently at this moment this version led to the assessment we heard – said Pieskow.
It was not immediately clear how exactly the US involvement would change in efforts to end the war. On Tuesday, the Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the war would end through negotiations, what It would be complicated if European countries armed Ukraine, as Trump suggested.
Meanwhile, Carnegie's expert states that Trump's sudden change – and Moscow's reaction – maybe actually move the chance of peace even more. “The risk of rapid escalation of fights is terrifying here,” she wrote. “Ukraine is not cracking, Trump is no longer an ally … So what remains? Calling the war machine.”
