Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk expressed on Tuesday that the chances of restoring peace in Ukraine appear very slim, with expectations that Russia will prolong the conflict at least until winter, according to reports.
Tusk, speaking to journalists in Paris, noted, “At this moment, it seems unlikely that a ceasefire or peace agreement will be reached in the near future, given Russia’s rigid stance and Putin’s position.”
He remarked that he has discussed the situation with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“Everyone expects an escalation of actions from Russia at this time, and it is quite likely that Russia wants to extend this war at least until winter,” he warned.
Tusk also indicated that Poland would host military exercises this fall with French and British troops to ensure the security of Ukraine and the region once a peace agreement or ceasefire is eventually established. “These exercises will prepare the entire coalition gathered today in Paris for real security guarantees for Ukraine and the region,” he stated.
Russia’s Signals
On Friday, the Kremlin announced that Vladimir Putin remains open to achieving Russia’s objectives through diplomacy while simultaneously creating a larger buffer zone in Ukraine in response to what they termed Ukraine’s “escalating” actions.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted that Russia believes Kiev is not currently interested in negotiations, leading Moscow to continue its military campaign in Ukraine.
Peskov’s comments followed a report from Reuters citing three sources close to the Kremlin, asserting that recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and ports have reinforced Putin’s resolve to continue the war, at least for now.
According to these sources, Putin has dismissed calls to negotiate peace, with two of them, who spoke anonymously, indicating a high probability of escalation in the coming months.
Until Ukraine’s Surrender
On Thursday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Moscow would continue the war against Ukraine until it meets the objectives set by Vladimir Putin for June 2024, which essentially refers to Ukraine’s complete surrender.
Lavrov emphasized during a joint press conference with Mozambique’s Foreign Minister Maria Lucas, “The president has clearly confirmed that we will continue to pursue the objectives established since June 2024.”
In 2024, during the aforementioned speech, Putin demanded the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, which Russia has not fully captured, recognition of these regions and Crimea as Russian territories, a refusal from Ukraine to join NATO, and the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine. He stated that once these conditions are fulfilled, he would order an immediate ceasefire.
