According to Alexander Stubbs, Russia has not met any of its primary goals in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. The country has maintained its independence and is progressing towards integration with the European Union and NATO. Stubbs noted that the expansion of NATO has actually intensified following the accession of Finland and Sweden.
He remarked, “And, of course, the third failure is the attempt to limit European defense spending. Now we are rising above 5%. So, to speak of a ‘strengthened Russia’ – I simply do not believe it. This conflict has already cost over 1 million Russian soldiers dead or wounded. It has lasted longer than World War I. In World War II, the Soviet Union reached Berlin in less than four years. And now, in active warfare, they have advanced only 60 kilometers in six years. This is how it ends. Therefore, we need to stop promoting the narrative that Russia is ‘winning.’ That’s not the case. For Russia, this will be a strategic defeat,” he explained.
Despite these observations, Stubbs believes that the war should conclude with negotiations and the restoration of dialogue with Russia once it ends.
Context
- In May, reports emerged that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may be developing a negotiation strategy with Russia without the involvement of the United States, as Washington is currently focused on the conflict with Iran.
- On May 20, the Financial Times reported that the main candidates for “negotiator with Putin” include Stubbs, his predecessor Sauli Niinistö, former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi, and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
