Companies are recruiting less and less often, and the focus is on cost control and reducing employee turnover.
The latest reading of the National Employment Index (NEI) for the first quarter of 2026 shows that the employment rate has stopped at 50 points – formally this means balance, but in practice it signals a clear cooling.
— An NEI of 50 points is not a signal of growth balance, but rather a moment of suspension. Companies do not develop employment, they only manage risk, comments Evgenij Kirichenko, founder of Gremi Personal.
Recruitment suspended. Companies are playing a waiting game
Although the business sentiment sub-index remains at 55 points, its structure has clearly changed. As much as 62 percent companies declare that employment will remain unchanged, and only one in four plans to increase the number of employees. At the same time, the percentage of enterprises considering downsizing is growing.
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However, Evgenij Kirichenko assures that this is not about mass layoffs. The key change is freezing recruitment and limiting turnover. It is the decline in the dynamics of employee exchange that often precedes a deeper economic slowdown.
Industry is losing jobs
The greatest pressure can be seen in the industrial sector. In the first quarter of 2026, the number of people working in companies decreased by 51.3 thousand. year on year (-0.76%). At the same time, large enterprises announced collective layoffs covering over 11,300 people. people – that's almost 25 percent. more than a year earlier.
Employment is shrinking the most in the export industries: automotive (-3.4% y/y) and furniture (-3.2% y/y). – We see a lasting change in the cost and competitive structure in European industry, and Poland is part of this trend – emphasizes Kirichenko.
Slowest wage growth since 2021
With the weakening demand for employees, the wage pressure is clearly decreasing. Wages in the corporate sector are currently growing by 6.3%. y/y – this is the lowest dynamics since the beginning of 2021. For comparison, in 2023–2024 the increase reached 10–13%.
Companies are increasingly suspending raises: 68 percent. have already frozen them, and only 30 percent still implements them. There are also the first signs of real wage stagnation and, in individual cases, declines.
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A one-time bounce does not change the trend
Good macro data for March – retail sales (+8.7% y/y), industrial production (+9.4%) and exports (+6.1%) – do not change the market picture. Their improvement was mainly due to one-off factors.
Companies do not base their strategies on single months. In the horizon of the next quarters, cautious scenarios dominate and investments remain limited.
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Immigrants and flexible forms of employment stabilize the market
Labor immigration remains one of the few stabilizers. The sub-index in this area increased to 61 points. The number of foreigners reported to ZUS reached 1.295 million (+8.6% y/y), of which 865 thousand are employees from Ukraine.
Their presence allows companies to maintain operations despite limited recruiting activity. At the same time, the importance of temporary and seasonal work is growing.
AI on the list of the biggest challenges
For the first time, artificial intelligence and automation appeared among the key business challenges in the NEI survey. This is a signal of a structural change: the market is beginning to divide into professions that are resistant to and prone to automation. In the long run, this may deepen these differences.
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The indicators suggest stability, but it is not based on market strength but on companies' caution. The coming quarters will show whether this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a longer period of a colder labor market.
