Spain, a country of nearly 50,000,000 with an infrastructure designed for 40,000,000: “The cracks are starting to appear”

The pressure of demographic changes and tourism on public services is felt more and more in European states. In Spain, the phenomenon has turned economic and demographic success into a major management challenge.

• Spain has passed 49.1 million residents, and the current growth rate will lead to reaching the historical threshold of 50 million inhabitants by the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027.
• “The cracks are starting to appear. It's a problem of success, a reality we have to manage,” warns Pere Navarro, director of Spain's road authority. It points to the gap between population and lagging infrastructure.

The situation in Spain is not isolated, with similar problems being encountered in other parts of Europe. In Switzerland, the population has grown rapidly also due to immigration, putting major pressure on living space and public transport. The situation has even led to the launch of a citizens' initiative that calls for a strict cap on the number of inhabitants to protect the state's networks, writes the Swiss press.

For its part, Romania is facing a similar phenomenon of congestion in the large urban centers, where the existing infrastructure has lagged far behind.

The massive demographic concentration and huge number of cars have turned Bucharest into a pole of traffic jams, as networks and roads have been designed for far fewer users.

An analysis carried out by El Pais shows how the accelerated pace of growth in recent years brings Spain to a historic threshold. According to the 2025 census, the country exceeded 49.1 million residents last year, and the April data already indicated a number of 49,687,120 people. Spain's National Institute of Statistics is due to reveal this month, in its demographic projections for the period 2026-2076, the exact moment when this threshold will be reached.

This population growth is entirely due to immigration, with birth rates at historic lows – the second lowest in all of Europe. Since 2015, deaths have far exceeded births, a trend known as negative natural growth.

If the current pace of about half a million people a year continues, the 50 million mark could be reached by the end of this year or early 2027.

The paradox of tourist success

In addition to the resident population, a considerable number of tourists visit the country every year. According to INE, 96.8 million international tourists visited Spain in 2025, the highest figure in history and a 3.2% increase compared to 2024.

The country thus consolidates its position as the second most visited destination in the world, after France and ahead of major tourist destinations such as the United States, according to World Tourism Organization data for 2025.

Initial results this year suggested the 100 million tourist mark would be passed in 2026. However, tensions in Iran have reignited inflation and risks related to kerosene shortages are starting to raise ticket prices and affect air routes, which could temper that optimism.

Sooner or later, Spain will have 50 million inhabitants and 100 million tourists. This reality is the basis of its economic growth and constitutes a statistical, economic and social success, notes the Spanish publication.

“People go where they see opportunities,” emphasizes Rafael Doménech, chief economist of BBVA Research and professor at the University of Valencia. At the same time, the situation represents an enormous challenge, as demographic growth has occurred in a very short time, services and infrastructure have not kept pace, and the current model shows signs of structural fatigue.

Pere Navarro, the director of Spain's road authority, explained this reality vividly: “Spain is a country of 50 million people, with infrastructure and many policies designed for a country of 40 million, and this has its consequences. The cracks are starting to appear. It is a problem of success, a reality that we have to manage.”

Challenges in critical sectors

Diego Rodríguez, researcher at Fedea and professor of applied economics at the Complutense University of Madrid, confirms the urgency of the situation.

Climate change and the intensification of extreme weather events, with more severe droughts and a greater likelihood of torrential rains, are compounded by heavy consumption and aging infrastructure, putting the country in a situation of recurring water stress.

Tourism exacerbates this situation. A tourist uses an average of 400 to 800 liters of water per day, according to Barcelona's water company, compared to 127 liters for a resident. This leads to restrictive measures such as flow reduction in distribution networks and even power outages.

High consumption is compounded by the state of networks. Because of old pipes, between 15% and 25% of drinking water is lost through leakage, and an international analysis agency raises this percentage to 40% in some regions. In addition, the Association of Civil Engineers warns that the dam network has an average age of 60 years. “We're almost talking about a safety issue,” says Rodríguez.

In the case of rail transport, for decades most investment has been focused on the high-speed network, which has become the second most extensive in the world, after China's.

Liberalization of the sector in 2021 has led to lower ticket prices and significant increases in passenger numbers, increasing pressure on the network without a corresponding increase in rail maintenance. Meanwhile, the commuter rail service is suffering structural collapse due to years of underinvestment, which has led to increased disruption in major urban centres.

The Spanish government and the European Union want to expand the railways to reduce pollution. However, experts point out that modern networks need good and efficient maintenance, not just new lines.

This maintenance is vital, as is the safety of the power system. After the April 2025 blackout, fears about the power grid have increased due to digitization, artificial intelligence and extremely energy-hungry data centers.

An electrical network at the limit

Energy demand in Spain increased by 2.8% in 2025, well above the European average. The power grid is at capacity, although the country is more actively producing clean energy than ever. “But we continue to consume more oil than ever,” emphasizes researcher Diego Rodríguez.

Because of this, 83% of connection points are blocked. In 2025, only 12% of projects that applied to connect to the grid received authorization, with the rest being denied due to lack of capacity. Saturation stalls industry and construction. “Once again, the key is planning,” reiterates Rodríguez.

As Rafael Doménech summarizes, “how the investment is made is as important as the amount to be invested”. A long-term strategy is needed for Spain to be ready for the milestone of 50 million inhabitants and 100 million tourists.

The housing shortage and immigration

Another major problem is the real estate market. A report entitled “Spain with 50 million inhabitants” calls for a social pact in this sense. The housing shortage is huge: the Bank of Spain estimates it at 700,000 units, and CaixaBank Research at 765,000.

New construction covers only half of the households created annually, driving up prices. Experts from Funcas warn that the lack of affordable housing risks reducing immigration in the future and blocking the birth rate.

The demographic evolution is completely changing the country. Currently, 80% of newly hired people are born abroad. Spain already has 10 million inhabitants coming from outside the country, that is 20% of the population.

“An upward economic cycle allows the integration of all newcomers, but if employment is affected, problems can arise,” warns Professor Miguel Angel Garcia.

He insists on quick measures: “If immigrants are needed, complementary measures must be taken to ensure their proper integration, so that social services do not deteriorate, guaranteeing access to education, healthcare and housing.”

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