The paradox of consumption: Romanians fueled up in the midst of rising diesel prices. Fear of prices moved demand up
The accelerated diesel price increase in 2026 did not produce the classic reaction of reducing consumption, but on the contrary coincided with a significant increase in purchases. Anticipations of future price increases became more important than the current price, and the economic behavior of companies was dominated by stockpiling and preventive purchases.
In the first month of the war in the Middle East, the price of diesel rose by 30%. Photo by Shutterstock
Between March 2025 and March 2026, the price of diesel rose from 7.56 lei per liter to 9.81 lei per liter, which means an increase of almost 30%. Normally, such an advance should have reduced demand, but the data shows just the opposite. Consumption increased by more than 21% compared to February 2026, during a period when prices rose rapidly and visibly.
Currently, diesel is around 9.59 lei per liter, which means that the current level remains approximately 27% higher than a year ago. Basically, the market not only accepted this price level, but also reacted by accelerating purchases, which suggests a change in economic behavior among industrial consumers.
The global shock that fueled the price increase
According to the official information analyzed by “Adevărul”, in just one month after the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the Brent price rose from 72.87 dollars/barrel to 105.32 dollars/barrel, a jump of over 44%. The price then continued to climb, reaching $114.44/barrel in May, before returning to $98.71/barrel in early June.
This development was doubled by additional pressure from the currency area. According to official NBR data, the leu gradually depreciated against both the euro and the dollar, which mechanically increased the import cost of petroleum products. If at the beginning of March the euro rate was 5.0972 lei, at the beginning of June it had reached 5.2592 lei, while the dollar rose from 4.3430 lei to 4.5281 lei in the same interval.
March 2026, the month in which price and consumption rose simultaneously
On the other hand, the month of March was an atypical one for the fuel market, in which there was a rare overlap between the price increase and the consumption increase. Gasoline rose from 7.97 lei per liter to 8.97 lei per liter, i.e. plus 12.5%, and diesel rose from 8.20 lei to 9.81 lei, i.e. almost 20% in a single month.
Compared to March 2025, the advance is even stronger, with petrol up 24.4% and diesel up 29.8%. Theoretically, such an evolution should have led to moderation of consumption, but reality contradicted the classic market model.
“Normally, such increases should lead to a reduction in demand. This has not happened.
Consumption has increased along with prices. For gasoline, consumption rose from 140.3 thousand tons in February 2026 to 152.0 thousand tons in March 2026, which means an increase of 8.4%. For diesel, the jump was spectacular: from 386.2 thousand tons to 467.8 thousand tons, respectively more than 21%. Compared to March 2025, gasoline consumption is higher by more than 17%, and diesel by approximately 6%.
Therefore, the market not only did not react negatively to the price increases, but absorbed additional volumes at the exact moment when fuels became significantly more expensive“, said Dumitru Chisăliță, president of the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI).
Why consumption did not decrease: mobility, but especially anticipations
Part of the explanation comes from increased economic activity. Mobility data shows that total kilometers traveled rose from about 11.3 billion km in February 2026 to 12.3 billion km in March, which means an advance of 8 to 10 percent, the expert points out. This evolution explains almost entirely the increase in gasoline consumption, which remains closely linked to road traffic and car use.
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Diesel, however, follows a different logic. The increase in consumption of over 21% cannot be explained only by mobility, given that the total journeys advanced by approximately 9%. The difference of more than 10 percentage points indicates the existence of additional factors, which have less to do with actual consumption and more to do with purchasing behavior.
If we strictly apply the dynamics of mobility to diesel consumption in February, claims Dumitru Chisăliță, the theoretical result would have been approximately 420 to 425 thousand tons. In reality, consumption reached 467.8 thousand tons, which means an increase of about 45 to 50 thousand tons that cannot be explained by traffic.
“Fear of price increases changes economic behavior”
This gap can be explained by the anticipation mechanism, the expert explains, adding that the market not only reacts to the current price, but also to the perception of future developments. “The fear of price increases can generate additional consumption. The economy works not only on the basis of current prices, but also on the basis of expectations about the futurel”, he emphasizes.
In this context, companies' behavior becomes proactive. Transporters are filling up their tanks, storage infrastructure operators are increasing their reserves, and the agricultural and construction sectors are securing their needs ahead of peak periods. All these decisions do not reflect a real increase in immediate consumption, but a shift in purchases over time.
Diesel fuel as an indicator of the real economy
Moreover, warns the specialist, diesel fuel is not a fuel for final consumption, but a structural one, related to the functioning of the real economy. It feeds freight, agriculture, construction and industry, sectors where price elasticity is reduced in the short term. A truck can't reduce runs because of price, a farmer can't stop agricultural work, and a construction site can't be temporarily suspended depending on the monthly evolution of fuel.
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This rigidity explains why diesel reacts differently than petrol and why price shocks do not immediately translate into consumption declines, but rather into behavioral and purchasing timing adjustments.
Storage becomes the dominant economic factor
In addition to mobility and economic activity, an important role is played by storage. Part of the additional consumption in March 2026 does not represent fuel burned immediately, but fuel moved into tanks. In periods of volatility and accelerated price growth, companies prefer to buy early, which artificially boosts short-term demand.
Thus, the market not only reflects actual consumption, but also an important component of anticipation, which can temporarily distort the classic relationship between price and demand.
The evolution of 2026 shows that the fuel market operates more and more on the basis of anticipations, not just immediate price reactions. The rise in diesel prices did not reduce consumption, but temporarily accelerated it amid fears of future increases and the need to stockpile in sectors of the real economy.
What happened to diesel prices in March is a demonstration of the fact that, in times of uncertainty, expectations about the future can become stronger than the signal sent by the prices of the present, points out the expert, adding that “instead of reducing demand, the accelerated price increase drove a large part of the market to buy more and faster”.
