Viktor Erofeev – son of a high-ranking Soviet diplomat, Stalin's translator. Literary critic, co-founder of the famous literary magazine, “Metropol”, in which many famous names of Soviet literature participated, including Vasily Aksionov, Andrei Bitov, Bella Akhmadulina. He contributes regularly to The Times Literary Supplement, The New Yorker, and The New York Review of Books. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he lived in Germany. He was awarded the Commander's Cross of the Order of Merit of the Republic of Poland.
Russia will never agree to hand over Ukraine to the West. Putin thinks that Russia without Ukraine is like a truck without one wheel. But where has the Ukrainian circle disappeared? According to the Kremlin, they were stolen by Russia's Western enemies.
The current situation in the war between Russia and Ukraine is reminiscent of an old Russian legend about three warriors who stop at a crossroads and wonder which path they should follow. By turning right, they will stay alive but lose their horse; turning left, they will die.
However, it turns out that there is a third way – they can drive straight ahead, but then they will end up naked and hungry.
This legend is not optimistic, but it shows one thing. There are always nuances in choosing a path – it could be bad or even worse. This is also the case with Russia's war with Ukraine. There are not just two paths, but three.
Opponents of Russian aggression demand that Russia admit its collective guilt. In response, they hear not so much “Never in my life!” but “What are you even talking about?!”.
Officially, nothing in the Kremlin's doctrine has changed one iota since the beginning of the invasion – and it will probably remain so. Putin stubbornly repeats his position ad nauseum, for him the war is not a war, but still a “special military operation”, and neo-Nazis rule in Kiev.
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The Russian people are falling into silence, although in different ways – some are silent in favor of Putin, others against him. You can feel the tiredness around him, but showing dissatisfaction is dangerous, it's better to do it behind closed doors.
Russia may remain on the path of war almost indefinitely. This is what the 21st century looks like. First, the war in Chechnya, then in Georgia, and then the conquest of Crimea and Donbas in 2014. The war is beneficial to China. It allows them to reduce Russia to a subordinate position. It is also in some sense beneficial to America, which does not need Russia as a third superpower.
In Europe, the situation is more complicated. For Europe, the war initially had some advantages because Russia was stuck in a war with Ukraine. But now Europe is pushing for a negotiation process because it fears the war could eventually spread across the continent.
Putin is now in a better starting position in relation to Europe. It is Europe that wants to negotiate with him, not the other way around. But what exactly are the negotiations about? Putin wants to be shown personal respect for him (this is the most important thing for him), and also to accept his right to talk about the war as a defense against the West. Europe will not agree to this.
The endless war is dangerous especially for Ukraine with its limited resources and corruption scandals. It will not be possible to achieve a ceasefire with refined drones alone. In addition, there is Russian patience. Russians endure everything. The population lives worse now.
The state slogan is clear: everything for the front, everything for victory. The only thing that could be painful for Putin is open mobilization, so he does it cleverly, in secret.
The path to peace
The path to peace may plunge Russia into enormous problems. Arms production drops dramatically, mass unemployment breaks out, and hundreds of thousands of soldiers return from the war with terrible experiences. It is unclear how the state will proceed in such a scenario after the fights with the insecure liberals end.
They were silent traitors during the war, but as soon as the war is over, they will loudly express their desire for a thaw – which will be highly undesirable to the ruler.
However, the main problem with peace is that it would be rotten in its essence, based on compromises, and this does not suit either the tsar or the mentality of the people. Beyond that, the prospect of peace is dim. A ceasefire will be agreed, and then?
The third way
However, there is a third path – unrestrained escalation of the war. This is not about systematic bombing of Kiev, but about direct confrontation with the West, which supplies Kiev with weapons. This means creating an atmosphere of instability and even panic in the West through threats and sabotage.
As we know, the West does not want to go to war, it does not have enough soldiers and resources for it, and moreover, since 1945 it has been so pacifist that Europeans would rather surrender to the Russians, just as many French once became collaborators.
Moreover, some political parties of the far left as well as the far right could support Russia's war against Europe. And if the West, unlikely as it is, actually goes to war with Russia after all, it's important to remember that Russia has nuclear weapons. You only need to use it to put everyone in fear and terror, but not to destroy everyone. And that would be it, dead silence in Europe and complete victory on Moscow's side.
Rather, nuclear war can only begin as a result of a chain of accidents. Kremlin propagandists talk about its consequences all too eagerly and constantly. Europe would only remain in ashes and Britain would sink into the sea. Expanding the war to the point of total nuclear catastrophe would be a real hell for all of humanity. However, defeat could be even more terrible than nuclear war for the mentality of the Russian tsar. Better death than the disgrace of compromise. Therefore, neither the collapse of the economy, nor the stack of sanctions, nor hostile drones over Russia can psychologically harm a man who hates nothing more than losing. The whims of the Tsar are more important than death.
With this mentality, words mean nothing. Putin always says only what is beneficial to him, nothing more. When it comes to ideology, Putinism is a collection of different ingredients, like borscht. There is beetroot (Stalinism), there is meat (the attitude of a superpower), there is a bit of cream (patriotism), but if we believe the words of Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, then Russia is Putin and Putin is Russia. This is what this ideology looks like.
As for the danger that Russian rulers may lose power, the Kremlin believes that Russian emigrants are just talkers. Of course, they are harmful and treacherous, but they are not dangerous. The only threat to the Russian rulers is the unpredictability of events. This was the case in February 1917, when the revolution emerged from the bread lines in Petrograd. Gorbachev was also unpredictable with his perestroika.
But there are no external threats in sight. America under Trump is not dangerous enough now. Europe is weak. China is an ally. Everyone else is friends: from India to Latin America. There is no threat, but victory is not coming, because Ukraine has become a shield, and the entire Western world is at war with Russia. Russians despise this world because it is supposedly full of consumerism and hedonism and a lack of any spirituality.
From the point of view of Russian spirituality, the West lives on the remnants of its former civilization. It is guided only by empty, meaningless progress – that is why Russia does not lag behind others, but simply follows its own, sovereign path.
China also has its own way. But Russia's way is better. Why? “Because we are the best,” Russians think. By definition.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
