The pension may amount to a quarter of the salary. New data from the Central Statistical Office are alarming
Poland is depopulating at a record pace – this is confirmed by the latest data from the Central Statistical Office. They show that the fertility rate dropped to 1.068 in 2025 from 1.099 a year earlier. It is assumed that this indicator should be 2.1 to ensure simple replacement of generations. Although the first quarter of 2026 did not bring any further deterioration, it is difficult to talk about a breakthrough.
— This number of births in the first quarter of 2026 is at a similar level as in 2025, but this does not mean that it is good, Sobolewski said in the program. As he emphasized, this is at most a reduction in the rate of decline. – This is simply a kind of slowdown in terms of this change – he said.
The expert predicts that in 10 years there will be approximately two million fewer Poles. In the following decades, the number of inhabitants of our country will decrease by as much as 10-12 million.
— Today (Poland's population) is approximately 37 million 300 thousand. In the next decades, we will drop below 25 million, he pointed out.
Read also: Black scenario for Poland. We are facing a demographic implosion
What pensions await us in 30 years?
What will the decline of the Polish population mean?
— Fewer and fewer children mean fewer and fewer people who will be in schools, kindergartens, and later on the labor market. On the other hand, as an aging society, we will have more and more people who are older at this age. AND With a relatively low retirement age and a very low retirement age for women, the number of retirees, especially retirees, will grow significantly, the expert noted.
He emphasized that demographic changes will have direct economic consequences. – We will see more and more people leaving and fewer and fewer people entering the labor market – he added.
When asked whether starvation pensions awaited him, the guest of the program replied: — It depends on how we prepare for it and how we save. If we do not save, this situation will actually become more and more difficult.
Sobolewski said that currently retirees receive a pension of about half of their last salary. However, this amount will drop dramatically over the years. — In the case of today's 20-30-year-olds, assuming that the retirement age is not changed, the pension will be approximately 20-25 percent. (last salary), he said.
