A month ago we had a rather short May weekend. There is a chance for a longer weekend (“June”) at the beginning of this month thanks to the day off on the occasion of Corpus Christi, which falls on Thursday, June 4, 2026. Just take a day off on Friday to enjoy four days without work.
See also: Poles work less often on weekends. Only two countries are ahead of us
For many Poles, an indispensable element of every long weekend is a barbecue, especially when the weather is favorable. However, you need to buy the necessary products first. There will be no horror receipts this year, because overall inflation is under control. Latest Central Statistical Office data for May they even surprised positively, because instead of the announced jump in the indicator to around 3.7%. there was a minimal drop to 3.1%.
At Business Insider Polska, we took a closer look at a basket consisting of several products typically associated with grilling and based on that we calculated “grillflation” at the beginning of June. To compare how the prices of several specific products have changed, we used the “Price Basket” developed for many years by the portal DlaHandlu.pl and PortalSpożywczy.pl. It contains more up-to-date data than the GUS tables published so far. It collects data on the prices of 50 basic products in popular store chains in the largest Polish cities.
Grillflation before “June”. What's in the basket and how will prices change in 2026?
Our grill basket includes:
- bread (1 kg)
- butter (200 g)
- orange juice (1 l)
- tomatoes (1 kg)
- ketchup (430 g)
- mustard (185 g)
- Podwawelska sausage (1 kg)
Such a set in stores in May 2026 cost approximately PLN 61.96. Therefore, we have a surprise, because compared to the valuation of the analogous basket of products from a year ago, we are not dealing with increases at the level of general inflation. The simple ones grocery shopping before June turns out to be much cheaper. In May 2025, products from our list cost approximately PLN 80.44. That means a decline of as much as 23 percent
Interestingly, all products on the list have become cheaper within a year. The average price of butter according to the Price Basket is approximately PLN 3 70 gr. This means a reduction of PLN 5.2 cents compared to the same period in 2025 and a discount of almost 60%.. By 16 percent stood in the last year Podwawelska sausagewhich means savings of nearly PLN 5 per kilogram. This is what happens orange juice cheaper by an average of 20 percent (less than PLN 2).
At the same time, mustard prices in our ranking went down (16%, approx. 68 groszy), bread dropped by 41 percent. (3 PLN 31 groszy), and approx. 13 percent each. less you have to pay for tomatoes and ketchup (PLN 1, 88 groszy and 86 groszy respectively).
Prices vary greatly. Grillflation is the lowest in years
Price analysis reveals an interesting relationship. The May “grillflation” of the same basket of products showed much lower price volatility than a month later. For example, Just before Juneteenth in 2025, the value of this shopping basket was 27%. higher than in 2024. In turn, a year earlier the decline was 12.5%, and even earlier the increases reached almost 17%.
See also: Where to go for June? We know where Poles travel most often and how much it costs
It should be emphasized that the current grill basket is the cheapest as of 2021. (comparing prices for the same month each year). Five years ago, the set, which now costs nearly PLN 62, was less than PLN 45.
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Created using AI/ChatGPT
“The main source of the positive surprise in May was strong drop in food prices” – point out PKO BP economists, commenting on the latest inflation data. Let us recall that the preliminary estimates of the Central Statistical Office for May showed that the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages decreased by 1% per month.
“That's how deep the decline is unprecedented and inconsistent with the seasonal pattern – food prices drop by 1%. m/m is the deepest May decline in the 21st century. A price reduction on a similar scale, apart from the summer months, in the 21st century occurred only in February 2022, when it was reduced to 0%. VAT rate on food,” bank experts note.
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PKO BP Bank
Such a large positive inflation surprise significantly reduces the inflation path forecast by the largest Polish bank. Previously, it was assumed that inflation would approach 4% by the end of the year. Currently economists do not rule out that the indicator will not exceed 3.5%.
Similar conclusions regarding the prices of food products come from the analysis of weekly data from the PanParagon application, which we regularly publish in Business Insider. The latest installment can be found HERE.
Author: Damian Słomski, journalist of Business Insider Polska
