At a time when Romania is in recession and apartment prices have risen by around 15% in a single year, more and more potential buyers are wondering if the real estate market is approaching a tipping point. Is it wiser to buy now, before possible further price increases, or wait for a correction that may never come? Analyst Adrian Negrescu explains why the purchase decision no longer depends only on the “moment of the market”, but above all on the financial capacity, income stability and the way in which long-term housing is thought of.
Many Romanians wonder if it is the right time to buy a home. Photo 123 RF
The concern is fueled both by recent macroeconomic developments and by increasingly intense discussions in the public sphere and on social media, where the theme of “the right time” to buy a home has become a recurring one.
How expensive housing has become in recent years
Many who are looking for a home today are wondering if they might be better off waiting, hoping for a market correction. However, the experience of the last decade shows that those who postponed the purchase ended up, most of the time, buying more expensively.
Eurostat data shows that housing prices in Romania increased by approximately 48% between 2015 and 2023, one of the largest advances in the European Union. However, looking at a longer period, the housing price index published by Eurostat shows that the residential market in Romania is approximately 60-70% above the level of ten years ago, depending on the reference period and the methodology used.
In parallel, real estate platforms and consultants in the field have reported double-digit annual growth in major cities in recent years, fueled by high construction costs, a shortage of new homes and still strong demand. In some urban centres, prices have advanced by more than 15% in a single year.
In this context, the public debate moved more and more from the area of statistics to the area of personal decisions, and the reactions of Romanians show a clear polarization between those who see the market as “overheated” and those who believe that the growth trend will continue.
“Buy when you can afford it”: how Romanians see the right time
Although the discussion started with the fear of a recession and a possible correction in the housing market, most of the comments go in one direction: if the home is intended for long-term living and the rates are sustainable, buyers should not base their decision on trying to anticipate the evolution of the market.
According to most participants in the debate, the biggest risk is not buying now, but making a major compromise or putting off for years a decision that could become even more expensive in the future.
The same idea comes up frequently in discussions on social platforms, including Reddit, where users who say they watched the market for years without buying ended up getting in at higher prices. One comment summarizes this approach in a simple formula: “You buy when you can easily afford the rate and plan to stay at least 5-10 years in that property.”
The fear of a new crisis makes many Romanians postpone buying a house
An example that generated numerous reactions in the online environment is that of a family from Iași, with savings of 90,000 euros and monthly income of approximately 25,000 lei, who asked if they should wait for a possible drop in prices or buy the desired home now.
The two want an individual house in the metropolitan area of Iasi, where prices are around 200,000 euros, but they are also considering a compromise option, namely a duplex or a terraced house for around 150,000 euros.
Their question sparked dozens of comments and brought to light one of the most common dilemmas in the real estate market: the choice between waiting for a possible correction and risking paying more in the future.
“Don't buy a compromise home”
The most frequent advice received by the family was to avoid decisions dictated solely by fear of the market and to directly choose the desired home, even if it involves a greater financial effort.
“Don't complicate, don't lock up the money. Take what you like. The correct option is A“, one user wrote.
A similar opinion was expressed by several participants in the discussion, who believe that a compromise home can become, over time, a source of frustration, but also of indirect costs.
Very high house prices will continue to rise until the end of the year. Where the biggest increases were recorded
“Don't make the mistake of taking a bargain home now just because you're afraid of the market. If the market goes down, the difference in a house you stay in for 10 years is irrelevant to the pain of living in a place you don't want“, explained another user.
Another comment summed up this perspective even more directly: “The difference in money between A and B is not that big. Go straight on A and live your life.”
Many Romanians no longer believe in the scenario of a significant price reduction
One element that comes up consistently in the comments is skepticism about the idea of a major price correction.
Several users recall that over the years there have been numerous predictions of a “market crash“, which, however, did not materialize. In this logic, each new crisis context was followed by a resumption of growth.
“Before the pandemic, it was said that the crisis is coming and the bubble will burst. The pandemic came, then the war in Ukraine, now the war in Iran. There is always a reason why people believe that prices will drop dramatically. In reality, it didn't happen”is one of the opinions expressed in the discussion.
There are also personal examples cited by users, with some stating that recently purchased apartments have already seen value increases of around 20%, while others, active in the real estate sector, claim that transactions continue at a high pace, despite the general perception of a slowdown.
“Many people say no one is buying anymore, but I attended a transaction recently and in an hour and a half eight or nine people came to sign. One agent said he had sold 12 apartments in three weeks”reported one user.
However, there are also cautious voices
On the other hand, not all comments are optimistic. Some of the participants draw attention to financial risks in an uncertain economic context, especially in situations where the family's income depends significantly on a single salary.
In these cases, job security and the ability to support bank rates become essential elements in the purchase decision, and recommendations frequently go towards prudence and the establishment of a substantial reserve fund before accessing a loan.
“The most expensive thing can be to wait”
One of the recurring ideas in the debate is that delaying the purchase decision can have higher costs than the actual purchase.
One user explains this perspective with a temporal comparison: “If you make the decision three years ago, you buy the house you want for 150,000 euros. Today it is 200,000 euros. What you saved was eaten up by inflation and rising prices.”
The same idea is supported by other participants in the discussion, who believe that the optimal time to buy is not dictated by the market, but by the balance between income, financial stability and the long-term horizon of the use of the home.
Adrian Negrescu: The time of real estate bargains has passed
Economist Adrian Negrescu explained, in a statement for “Adevărul”, that the optimal moment for the purchase of a home is not necessarily the one dictated by market cycles, but the one in which the buyer has financial stability and identifies a suitable long-term home.
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“The best time to make a real estate investment is when you have the guarantee that you can support it either from savings or from the rate at the bank. I think it is essential, if we are talking about a real estate loan, to think seriously about whether we can pay the monthly rate, not to overestimate our earnings and to think coldly.
QRegarding the dynamics of prices in the real estate market, it would be good to think about a presumptive fall of the market, of prices, as in the previous crisis. And that's because the situation is completely different from that moment. There are more and more investment funds in the market that act coherently to keep the market growing, similar to what happens in the other EU countries“, Negrescu declared for “Adevărul”.
The analyst stated that “the time of real estate bargains is over” and that the market has matured so much, especially financially, that “a correction, if it is to occur, cannot exceed 20-30% of the average price”.
“The best time to buy a home is when you can afford it and when you find a home that has potential for resale. That is, to think in terms of how likely that home is to sell for a profit.
A house in the field, with water from a spring, without building infrastructure (school, kindergarten, shops, public transport) will gradually lose its value and, therefore, when we buy a house, it would be good to talk to an expert in the field to evaluate us the risk of depreciation of the building”, declared Negrescu.
