The Suwałki Isthmus is considered a key weak point in the West. This narrow strip of land, only 65 km wide, between Lithuania and Poland is the only land connection between Western Europe and the Baltic states. Vladimir Putin could sever this connection and expand his influence.
Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady notes that “a physical invasion is not even necessary to cut off the Baltic states, because Russian troops would not even have to occupy the Suwałki Isthmus. Remotely controlled mines, drones and rocket artillery will be enough to take control of the fire in the region.” “It would isolate the region without a single Russian soldier crossing the border,” Gady says.
Hybrid warfare has been going on for a long time
According to Estonian security expert Erkki Koort, a military attack is currently unlikely because the Russian army is immobilized in Ukraine. Moreover, the expert argues that Russia could have more difficulty defending Königsberg than NATO would have in defending the Baltic states. However, he warns: “Whenever the Russian army is in a weak position on the front, it increases the scale of hybrid attacks,” he says.
Geostrategic map of EuropeAdam Ziemienowicz / PAP
This hybrid war waged by Russia is already threatening the Baltic states – through disinformation and attacks on digital or structural infrastructure (e.g. Baltic cables). Part of this is the disruption of navigation signals in the Baltic Sea, the number of which has increased dramatically since 2022, originating from the Königsberg Oblast. This disrupts and threatens shipping and air traffic.
Historian Jan Behrends believes that Russia will not achieve sovereignty over the Baltic Sea. — Since Sweden and Finland joined NATO at the latest, domination in the Baltic Sea remains an issue – Russia has free access to the sea only in the vicinity of Saint Petersburg and Königsberg – he emphasizes. However, the Baltic states are “important to Putin for historical and geographical reasons.” The Baltic countries were occupied by the Soviets until 1991. “The Kremlin considers them its rightful sphere of influence,” Behrends says. Putin could, in the long run, surround these three EU countries. Missiles capable of reaching Berlin are already stationed in the Russian enclave.
Russian population in the Baltic countries
However, there is also a potential internal threat in the Baltic states. The Estonian city of Narva, especially located on the border with Russia, offers Putin opportunities to exert influence. Its population is predominantly Russian-speaking. The Kremlin leader sees the region as “Russian territory.” According to Behrends, a military threat from Russia would arise here, especially “if there was a ceasefire in Ukraine. Then several hundred thousand Russian soldiers would be released there and the Kremlin could deploy them elsewhere.”
***
