The ball is in Romania's court after the incident in Galați. Experts warn: “If we do not respond, the next target may be Kogălniceanu”
Italy is sending almost 100 soldiers and several fighter jets to Romania, in a mission made urgent by the incident caused by the Russian drone that crashed in Galați. The Italian contingent will be deployed at the Mihail Kogălniceanu base, where it will support the training of Romanian forces in the face of Moscow's threats. During all this time, Romania obtained NATO approval for the requests regarding the anti-drone defense capabilities necessary to protect the eastern flank. Currently, the authorities are waiting for the concrete contribution of allied states with defense equipment and systems. However, according to experts, the real solution and the main effort must come from within.
Nicușor Dan, in the block of Galati damaged by a drone. PHOTO: Presidential Administration
A block hit by a Russian drone, two injured, a devastated apartment and a country that, once again, finds itself unprepared. This is the immediate balance of the Galati incident. But beyond the concrete damage, the event also opened a window of diplomatic and strategic opportunity that Romania can use. Iulian Fota, former presidential advisor for national security, and Radu Carp, professor of political science at the University of Bucharest, say that the ball is in Romania's court, although recent history does not offer much reason for optimism.
The ball is in Romania's court
The Professor of Political Science at the University of Bucharest, Radu Carp, explains that this moment of crisis generates a favorable diplomatic context, which the Romanian state has the duty to make smart use of.
“The incident also creates certain opportunities for Romania externally. Romania is the victim of such an incident and, naturally, the other states show solidarity. Now it remains to be seen to what extent Romania will succeed in turning this sympathy capital into a longer-term strategic advantage. The ball is in our court, so to speak. There was indeed an unusual wave of sympathy, but the incident itself was also unusual”. said Radu Carp for “Adevărul”.
The teacher draws attention to poor tactical decisions internally. He states that the MROPS system is still incorrectly located and should have been quickly mobilized in the Galatiu area, where there are the greatest risks. Although he anticipates a takeover of responsibilities by NATO, Radu Carp issues a warning.
“If there are no adequate responses, it is not excluded that the next incident will target the Mihail Kogălniceanu base itself. Even if such a threat were countered, there is a possibility that Russia will continue to raise the level of provocations and test the limits of the Western and Romanian reaction”, says Radu Carp.
National defense begins at home, not with allies
Iulian Fota, former presidential advisor for national security, moves the discussion to the area of internal political responsibility and harshly criticizes the approach of the Bucharest authorities. For him, external support is secondary to national action.
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“There is nothing new here. It is an opportunity, internally, to change the approach. Romania's big problem is not how our allies help us. It is the fact that we do not help ourselves, because Romania is not doing what is necessary for itself. It is an opportunity for the political class, one, to apologize that the country is not well defended and, two, to change the approach, to do what is necessary for the country to be defended”emphasizes Iulian Fota.
The expert invokes Article 3 of the NATO Treaty, which obliges member states to strengthen their own defense capacity before requesting the intervention of allies.
“The battle is not won externally. You cannot go to your allies to ask for help if you have a dysfunctional country and do not do the basic things. About 15 years ago, an American ambassador told us that he sometimes had the impression that Romanians ask Americans to love Romania more than they love it themselves. It seemed to me a fundamental observation. You cannot ask your allies to love the country more than you do. You must first do what is right for your own country.”asks Iulian Fota rhetorically.
Machine guns instead of F-16s
The lack of anti-drone means is widely discussed in the public space, but the former presidential adviser considers this aspect a false problem. He gives the example of Ukraine, where most drones are shot down with anti-aircraft machine guns.
“They say we don't have enough anti-drone means. I think this is a false problem. In Ukraine, most drones are shot down with machine guns, not planes. There are simple and effective solutions. Romania once had very high-performance anti-aircraft machine guns. We don't have them anymore? Have we abandoned them? After the first incident in Galati, the right question was: what solutions have you identified so that something like this doesn't happen again? Is there really nothing besides F-16 planes?”, supports Fota.
The former presidential adviser compares the inaction of the Bucharest authorities with the exemplary mobilization of Poland after the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.
“I don't see any sign that things will change. I look at the political class since 2014. The Poles understood after the annexation of Crimea that they were facing an existential threat and acted accordingly. They had political disputes and conflicts, but on the fundamental issues they worked together and modernized their army and defense industry. Even today there is no clear signal with us that the entire political class understood the gravity of the situation and is ready to do the right thing.” emphasized Iulian Fota.
There are no coincidences at the strategic level
Moreover, Iulian Fota abolishes the hypothesis of a simple accident in the case of the drone from Galati. In his opinion, the analysis of the route and behavior of the aircraft indicates an intentional action by the Russian Federation.
“From the information and analysis that we've followed, the drone executed controlled maneuvers, descended deliberately and followed a logical path. Those things indicate intent. If the drone was maneuvered in a rational, controlled manner, then someone deliberately took it there. And if the information [referitoare la] explosive charge are correct, the conclusion becomes even stronger,” concluded Iulian Fota.
