Russia is bombing Kyiv with greater intensity. However, behind these dramatic images lies a surprising turn of events: Putin's army is losing momentum, while Ukraine suddenly regains the initiative on the front.
For three years, the direction of the war was clear. Russia attacked and Ukraine defended itself as best it could. Moscow lost tens of thousands of soldiers, but it gained ground month by month. Slowly but surely, the bloody front was moving in favor of the Kremlin. This was the case until recently.
According to analysts, the Russian army has reached a critical point. According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a renowned American think tank based in Washington, D.C., the Russian army is shrinking — and it is losing hard-won territory.
Russian bombs are still falling on Ukrainian cities, but on the front the trend has changed. Putin's army is moving much slower today than it was a year ago. While in the first months of 2025 the Russian army captured on average almost 10 square kilometers per day, in 2026 this value will be only about four square kilometers.
According to ISW, in April Moscow had to come to terms with the loss of up to 116 square kilometers of territory.
Moreover, for the first time since the beginning of the war, there are increasing signals that Russia is losing more soldiers every month than it can recruit new ones. According to ISW, in January alone, Moscow lacked approximately 9,000. soldiers to offset the losses.
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To meet this year's recruitment target, the Russian Ministry of Defense would need to recruit more than 1,100 new contract soldiers every day – in fact, currently it is apparently only able to recruit about 940 per day.
Ukraine has eliminated its greatest weakness
What is particularly noteworthy is that Ukraine's improvement is not due to a single weapon system or a new miracle weapon. Rather, Kiev appears to have solved one of the main problems of the past two years: taking away Russia's drone advantage.
Military analysts have been observing for months that Ukrainian units are increasingly regaining control of the airspace directly behind the front line. Russian supply routes are attacked, troop movements are detected early and command posts are precisely hit.
At the same time, the Ukrainians manage to send their own drones much deeper into the Russian rear. The consequences are visible along the entire length of the front. Russian troops need more time to attack, supplies reach the front more slowly, and transferring reserves is more difficult.
The war reaches Russia
Important events also take place hundreds of kilometers behind the front line. Ukrainian drones now regularly strike refineries, oil storage facilities, military airfields and communication hubs deep in the Russian rear.
Even Moscow cannot feel safe. Airports in the Russian capital must be temporarily closed, mobile networks are turned off and security measures around the Kremlin are tightened.
Attacks on Russian logistics are particularly painful for Russians. The situation on the front in Donbas has long been no longer decided solely in the trenches. Whoever delivers fuel, ammunition and spare parts to the front faster will win the war of attrition. And Ukraine is working tirelessly in this regard.
Hope for Kiev
It is currently impossible to talk about a Ukrainian counteroffensive like the one in autumn 2022. However, in the second half of February, Ukraine, for the first time since the failed counteroffensive in 2023, regained more territory than it lost. This in itself does not mean a turnaround in the war. However, it shows how much the dynamics on the front have changed.
For the first time in a long time, military observers are no longer primarily discussing the danger of Ukraine's collapse. Instead, another question arises: Has Russia already reached the peak of its military capabilities?
There is no clear answer to this yet. However, the development of the situation in recent months shows that Putin's army, despite its size, is running out of strength. The war with Ukraine is becoming more and more costly for Russia.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
