The former head of the Ukrainian army warns of geopolitical risks in the Black Sea region: six major vulnerabilities
The Black Sea remains one of the main theaters of geopolitical confrontation between the Russian Federation and the West. Before launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow had managed to gain significant strategic advantages in this basin, creating a direct challenge to European security on both its eastern and southern flanks. Moreover, the Russian Black Sea Fleet served as a logistical and strategic base for projecting Russian force beyond this region.
Valeri Zalujnii, former head of the Ukrainian army/PHOTO: Profimedia
The analysis belongs to the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the current ambassador in London, Valery Zalujnîi. In a material signed for the Interfax-Ukraine agency, the general highlights six fundamental threats that can definitively destabilize security in the Black Sea, indicating that the main stake is countering Russian hegemony.
1. Absence of a coherent NATO strategy in the region
Zalujnîi points out that NATO tends to continue to treat the Black Sea as a “Russian lake”, tacitly allowing Moscow to expand its military capabilities. While NATO promoted a policy of cooperation and dialogue, the Kremlin viewed the military alliance as the main threat to its national security. This approach gave Russia a free hand for expansionism in the North Caucasus, Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova. The former commander is convinced that Moscow will take advantage of any imbalance to restore its influence in the region.
2. The ineffectiveness of European Union strategies
Although last year the European Union presented a strategy dedicated to the Black Sea, with ambitious objectives, Zalujnîi believes that in reality this document, like the “White Book 2030”, represents only an unenforceable statement of intent. This lack of firmness only encourages Russia's aggressive actions. The ambassador points out that so far not even the idea of establishing a Maritime Security Center at the Black Sea has materialized.
Without a body endowed with real authority and rapid reaction mechanisms, politically displayed resolve remains without substance. Moscow speculates that the EU supports expansion into riparian states and increased trade with Africa and the Middle East, but lacks a clear military strategy to protect these trade and security interests.
3. The risk of reopening the Bosphorus Strait for Russian warships
Turkey's decision to block the transit of military ships through the Bosphorus during the war limited Moscow's ability to strengthen its fleet and launch massive attacks. However, in the event of a cease-fire agreement, the biggest risk is that Russia will condition the negotiations on reopening the straits for its navy. In the absence of a clear NATO and EU strategy, reopening the Bosphorus would allow the Kremlin to rebuild its naval military potential and prepare for a new phase of the conflict, while suffocating trade routes vital to Ukraine's economic stability.
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4. The subtle rise of China's influence
Expanding Beijing's presence in the region is a long-term challenge. Although the riparian states welcome Chinese investments due to their economic attractiveness, Zalujnîi warns that this dependence may generate a new geopolitical configuration. This phenomenon could lead to a loss of control over critical infrastructure and a weakening of ties with traditional Western allies and institutions.
5. Russia's desire for absolute domination
The hegemony that Moscow is trying to impose is the main factor of regional destabilization. The Black Sea is the springboard through which Russia projects its global ambitions. The major threat lies in the Kremlin's ability to intervene in the internal affairs of the Pontic basin states, often through hybrid methods and covert actions, to shape the security architecture in its favor.
6. The democratization of military technologies and the proliferation of drones
Current security is not only challenged by the evolution of conventional weaponry, but also by the fact that advanced technologies become accessible to insurgent groups or criminal structures.
“If maritime routes, through which approximately 90% of global goods are transported, and port infrastructure remain the pillars of the world economy, their safety is a strategic priority,” points out Zalujnîi.
The use of inexpensive maritime and aerial drones can cause massive destruction in compact maritime spaces and coastal areas, with the efficiency of robotic systems exceeding that of a conventional fleet.
At the start of the 2022 invasion, the Russian Navy blockaded the port of Odessa, crippling Ukrainian grain exports. Kiev's response came through the asymmetric use of domestic maritime drones. These unmanned vehicles directly targeted the ships of the Russian Navy, managing to destroy or damage a fifth of its forces and forcing Moscow to withdraw its ships from Crimea to safer ports in the eastern Black Sea. General Zalujnî's conclusion remains firm: long-term stability will depend exclusively on the creation of real counterweights capable of preventing Russia's military dictate in the region.
