Will Russian-Chinese “Boundless Friendship” Succeed in Restructuring International Relations or “Energy Resource Diplomacy”?
After Trump's visit to China, I believe that only now, between Putin and XI, the process they have been talking about for so long is to be started in force: the restructuring of international relations which, from their point of view, should lead to a complete restoration of the foundations of international development and coexistence in a “better and fairer” world.
Is it possible? At what price?
Recent history has shown us that anything is possible, and as such, there are no scenarios that can be ruled out from the start. Ideological scenarios, I mean, because it has become very clear that the former separations based on ideas, promises or political demagoguery have become very difficult to sustain in a world that has already felt on its own skin that the real games and important decisions are made exclusively according to (or under the impulse, call it what you want) the economic interests of the competing great powers and the multinationals always waiting for raw materials.
As a result, would the important leaders of the planet be just top negotiators?
They are also that, but after they have fixed the different horizons on which the development of their countries is to take place, that is, after, following a laborious consultation that sometimes lasted decades, the long-term and very long-term national vision was defined. There are the definitions of power that singularize their path in the national arena, from there they take their benchmarks for setting priorities at various stages, as predictable as their domestic and foreign policy moves.
In the current case, the two leaders have to resolve an essential point of enormous strategic value: the “Strength of Siberia 2” gas pipeline project that would give Russia the opportunity to “get rid” of the European market for good, supplementing with a significant amount the approximately 38 billion cubic meters annually that are now transported through the “Strength of Siberia 1”, the pipeline put into use in 2019… And it's not just about a purely economic discussion because, fundamentally, it puts a double problem of survival and energy autonomy: for Russia, this would be the ideal solution to replace the European market and redirect energy transports on highly protected networks, and for China it would represent the assurance that it will have the gas reserves necessary for the production that will capitalize on its huge resources of critical raw materials that it no longer wants to export at this time, in any case not to the USA…
The “Power of Siberia 2” pipeline should have a length of 2,600 km, leaving from the Yamal peninsula in northern Siberia, where Russia's largest gas reserves are concentrated. Estimates say it could transport around 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually, which is, mind you, about 12% of China's total consumption in 2025.
For now, however, the construction of the new pipeline has not started, although Gazprom had already announced a signed agreement for 30 years with the China National Petroleum Corporation. “Very detailed discussions” on the matter are now planned and are not expected to be easy as China is reportedly making the condition that Russia supply the gas at a significantly lower than market price.
It is clear that, in the new geopolitical conditions, China and Russia have every interest in continuing their energy collaboration, because it should not be forgotten that, in the first three months of 2026, China imported Russian gas worth approximately 2 billion Euros, it brings – three times more than in 2025…
We are witnessing the rapid evolution of three strategic plans: everything is still playing out between Trump's power projects, the gradual transition of Europe under the sign of such a costly war economy, and these still incompletely defined “Russian-Chinese eternal cooperation” together with BRICS allies.
Whoever will have the necessary resources in the long and very long term has the best chance of winning the planetary game.
