On Friday, the price of gold fell by over 2%, which was a reaction to US inflation data and the strengthening of the dollar, but the previous three sessions were also down. The new week does not bring any significant rebound yet. On Monday at noon, the price of gold falls by 0.13 percent, to $4,540 per ounce. Converted into our currency, this means a decrease of 0.3%, to PLN 16,571.
Let us recall that the price of gold after the outbreak of the war in the Middle East (the US and Israel's attack on Iran) was highly volatile. Initially, the rate was clearly going up, temporarily reaching around $5,418. per ounce (i.e. slightly below the all-time high of $5,595 recorded at the end of January). Later, however, there were significant declines. At one point – on Monday, March 23 – the rate dropped to $4,101, the lowest level since mid-November 2025. This meant a drop of almost 27%. from January's historic highs.
There will be no rate cuts in the US for now. This is bad for gold
Although gold is traditionally treated as a safe haven in times of unrest such as war, the conflict in Iran does not confirm this. This is due to its specific nature, specifically the effect of increasing oil prices, which aroused fears of a return of inflation and markets began to price in interest rate increases by central banks around the world.
These phenomena adversely affected the price of gold: the higher interest rates, the greater the opportunity cost of holding gold, which – unlike bonds – does not pay interest. In other words: a drop in interest rates creates favorable conditions for gold prices. Therefore, the end of the war or at least de-escalation, resulting in the normalization of oil prices and the return of expectations of rate cuts in the US and the weakening of the dollar should theoretically support gold prices.
— Gold is currently in the phase of a temporary market correction. The US dollar strengthened significantly, which naturally put selling pressure on the royal metal. The position of the American currency also improved as a result of the official, quite positive announcements that came after President Donald Trump's meeting with the leader of China, Xi Jinping. However, there is a clear signal from Wall Street: the chances of rate cuts in the US this year have dropped to just 3%. Although the high cost of money affects gold in the short term, we are entering a deep stagflation scenario, which in the long-term historical perspective has always favored physical assets – says Michał Tekliński, gold market expert at Goldsaver and Goldenmark.
The Goldenmark expert draws attention to tectonic, structural shifts in the global physical gold trade. — We are dealing with an unprecedented 285% jump in gold exports from the United States, mainly towards Asia. After Donald Trump's administration withdrew its plans to impose tariffs on the metal, New York's COMEX stock exchange vaults, which held a record 1,350 tons of the metal, began to rapidly melt. Banks are massively exporting bars, which, after being melted in Switzerland, go directly to China and Hong Kong to satisfy the intergenerational gold rush there, says Tekliński.
Central banks are increasing purchases
He adds that a similar escape from the dollar can be seen at the institutional level. — Another 18th consecutive month of purchases by the People's Bank of China and the consistent increase in reserves by the National Bank of Poland show that countries have drawn conclusions from the freezing of Russian assets, he notes.
See also: Gold overhyped? Arguments for and against and an alternative
Experts from the Goldman Sachs investment bank estimated in their latest report that the average level of gold purchases by central banks will increase to 60 tons per month in 2026, compared to the 12-month moving average of purchases, which was 50 tons in March (previously estimated at 29 tons). They believe that central banks continue to show strong interest in gold, and recent geopolitical events are likely to strengthen diversification over time.
Goldman Sachs analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the precious metals market. Despite the recent correction, they maintained their forecast and assume that the gold price may reach $5,400. per ounce by the end of 2026. However, they note that in the short term the market may remain volatile.
