March exports – the highest level in the last 16 years. We remain vulnerable to shocks in the auto industry
Exports of almost 9 billion euros in March 2026 represent the highest monthly level in the data series monitored by Statistics since 2010, according to the press release on the trade balance sent by the INS on Monday.
The trade deficit measured by the INS was around 3 billion euros – substantially lower than the peaks in 2022-2024.
If we look at the data for the entire first quarter, the accumulated deficit is 7.7 billion euros, almost 800 million euros lower than in the first quarter of 2025.
Romania is vulnerable to shocks in the automotive industry.
That comes from an unusual combination: exports rise modestly (+1.1%), but imports fall (-1.7%). The decrease in imports in annual terms is a signal that may reflect a compression of domestic demand (or consumption).
The dominance of machinery and transport equipment is striking: almost half of exports and 36.6% of imports. Romania remains practically dependent on a single large sector for foreign trade, which makes it vulnerable to shocks in the automotive industry.
Competitive pressures or market losses in lower value-added sectors
Significant declines in beverages and tobacco (-17.1% in exports) and miscellaneous manufactured goods (-7.8%), suggesting competitive pressures or market losses in lower value-added sectors.
Spectacular growth in vegetable/animal oils and fats (+148.9% in exports), probably conjunctural — one quarter does not make a trend, but the figure attracts attention.
The relationship with the EU27 remains overwhelming: 73% of exports and 75% of imports go/come from the EU. Extra-EU trade decreases compared to 2025 (-6.1% for exports, -12% for imports), which may also indicate effects of global trade uncertainties.
Long-term trend (from series 2010-2026)
On longer data series, we see that the 12-month moving average of exports is around 8,000-8,100 million euros/month, and that of imports around 10,700-10,800 million euros.
In short: Q1 2026 figures show a modest improvement in the balance compared to last year, driven by a moderation in imports rather than a jump in exports. The structure of exports remains fragile due to the high concentration on cars.
