How hard is it, in fact, to remove Romania from the European Union? The legal process and the polls that debunk the Roexit myth
In the context of the censure motion against the Bolojan Government and the increased tensions on the political scene, the specter of a “Roexit” returned to the center of public debates, raising concerns including at the level of the European Parliament. However, beyond the campaign rhetoric and warnings from foreign leaders, foreign policy experts are deconstructing the scenario of a break with Brussels. The analysis of complex legal mechanisms, opinion polls and pragmatic economic interests shows that Romania's path remains closely linked to the European Union, regardless of the reconfiguration of power in Bucharest.
Pro-Europe rally from March 15, 2025 in Bucharest PHOTO Shutterstock
“Adevărul” spoke with the foreign policy analyst, Cristian Barna, who says that the escalation of public discourse is far from being one with real consequences, in all the scenarios analyzed. Instead, political statements related to the danger of an alliance of PSD with AUR are more and more frequent.
“It is an exaggeration. I think there are two levels here. First, this level, which is not serious at all, that is, the idea of a Roexit from the Romanian side is, from my point of view, an idea that will not materialize given the current political coloration or the current, let's say, political division. The PSD will never do this thing, such a scenario, because the PSD understood very well what are the advantages generated by the presence in the European Union and the funds to which we have access and how this money is injected into the Romanian economy.”says Cristian Barna.
What would be the procedure for such an approach to be translated into reality?
In order for Romania to decide to leave the EU, a national consensus at the population level, but also a political one at the Parliament level, would be needed. The Parliament votes to initiate a national referendum, which then determines the exit from the EU forums.
“We clearly look at the polls that talk about Romania's role and place in the European Union, and I don't think we have anything but majority percentages over time regarding Romania's presence in the EU. Once the parliament must make the decision if they want to organize this referendum and for that there must be the necessary votes to organize the referendum and after that, effectively, the organization of the referendum which is the will of the people and only in this way can a Roexit be achieved, as was the access to the European Union.”
Human rights in Hungary Photo: Shutterstock
Where do the fears of European Union leaders come from?
Even if an approach like Roexit is unlikely, politicians and the press abroad follow the situation in Romania for other reasons. A change in the power forces in the country could have consequences at the level of decisions made in the European Parliament.
“They look a lot to the example of Hungary, to the example of Slovakia. All these examples come to speak only mainly about respect for democracy and human rights.
They are the only elements that could bring about a discussion about removal or an infringement procedure against Romania, from the European Union. So it is clear, the only real threat for Romania to suffer in terms of its presence in the European Union and in the decision-making forums, are the same ones we heard about Hungary, most concretely in recent years. I mean, the fact that they blocked their money from PNRR, the fact that they blocked other structural funds, it was discussed that they should no longer have the right to vote on certain issues because of the blocking, we know, aid to Ukraine and so on.
And then the only conclusive example that we can have for a possible path of Romania in a non-European direction is rather related to an option, indeed of the Romanian political spectrum, unlikely. If you ask me, GOLD won't either. I mean, I don't think AUR would want to do this either. When we look, and now, he doesn't have that kind of Roexit speech, I mean we haven't heard them, any kind of political leader.”
The consequence of the anti-European messages of the former Prime Minister Viktor Orban was the blocking of the funds that Hungary benefited from, but in no case the exclusion or withdrawal from the EU.
“The most common examples we can have from Hungary, where there are indeed those slippages related to the freedom of the press, of NGOs, of the ways in which, let's say, the democratic place tried to be corrupted, by Victor Orban. And of course the way in which all these were elements that led to the activation of some tools from the EU, which were, as far as we know, only the blocking of some funds. It was the toughest tool of the EU.”says the analyst.
Cristian Barna, foreign policy analyst Photo: Vocea Basasarabiei
Loss of money from PNRR, another level of “imminent dangers”
The fact that in the coming weeks the public agenda will be occupied with the no-confidence motion and the creation of a new governing coalition, calls into question the fulfillment of the benchmarks that Romania has assumed for the PNRR allocations. President Nicușor Dan assured that there is a consensus on this part of adopting the legislation, but the short time until the end of August could block certain projects. However, it is not the first time that the governors could give up certain allocations or renegotiate amounts depending on the objectives met.
“We added them up, there would still be nine laws to pass, it is not the EU's fault because we did not respect a calendar or proposed an ambitious calendar. Who was stopping them when they were not yet arguing and had consensus?
Why don't we demand the removal of some milestones, they can be demanded. The fact that we are in a political crisis could create room for such a negotiation. There is precedent. But in the present case there are no more chances if we have laws to pass in the government and we are heading towards a motion of censure and a new Government.”says Cristian Barna.
Romania had verification mechanisms in the case of judicial problems, MCV, but it never reached extreme situations. The percentages of parties that have anti-EU speeches do not show that the leaders of a new government will face an anti-European current that produces consequences.
