— Germany is in a long-term crisis. We are trying to get out of it. This is now a big opportunity for Poland, because German companies are looking in this direction, says Dr. Lars Gutheil in an interview with Business Insider.
— You can see production being transferred from Germany to Poland, and even replacing locations. From the German perspective, this is a bit worrying, he adds.
Gutheil emphasizes that Germany should not be “written off” – it is still a reliable and powerful third world economy. However, the list of problems it faces is really long. These include high energy prices and difficulties in finding qualified labor.
— We have to become cheaper. We need to find a way to significantly reduce bureaucracy in Germany and Europe, Gutheil adds in an interview with Business Insider.
The director of the Polish-German Chamber of Commerce also comments on the latest government forecasts regarding this year's growth rate of the German economy. These turned out to be very pessimistic – dropped by as much as 50%. to the level of 0.5 percent from 1 percent
— This is still growth, but we would hope for a faster recovery in Germany. We need more reforms (…). If you want change, it has to hurt a little. You can't do it without pain, he comments.
— There are companies that leave the German market and move to Poland because they find qualified employees here – says.
The favorable outlook for Poland is confirmed by a survey conducted by the Chamber among foreign investors. In the ranking, Poland ranks second in terms of investment attractiveness among 14 Central and Eastern European countries. It is second only to Lithuania.
Ranking of countries from the report
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AHK / Own materials
According to NBP data, German direct investments in Poland have reached PLN 265.4 billion.
Poland, a safe haven
Gutheil admits that the level of optimism was surprising, especially in such a difficult geopolitical time. The percentage of responses describing the condition of the Polish economy as “good” is clearly increasing, and the share of assessments of “bad” is decreasing. Over the last year, the share of responses describing the economic situation as good has increased by as much as 18.6 percentage points to 43.1 percent. — the study shows.
According to Gutheil Poland wins with the coherence of its operational environment: infrastructure, logistics, supplier network and services.
The country remains “constructively predictable” for many companies, even as the region lives under the pressure of war, tariffs, trade fragmentation and energy turbulence. Moreover, almost all surveyed companies present in Poland do not regret the decision to choose Poland. As much as 94.5 percent indicated that they would invest again.
— As you can see, we have been talking about shortening supply chains for years. We are also seeing results for the first time. Things are really picking up pace, he says, pointing out that the focus on European chains has become prominent in investor decision-making factors.
Investors also see disadvantages
Poland's attractiveness, however, has its drawbacks regarding the state's predictability. – These are tax burdens. This predictability and reliability of the legal system – lists.
Gutheil reminds deregulatory announcements of the Polish government and compares them with investors' feelings. — The new government started with a promise: we will make the legislative process more transparent. (…) so far, at least for investors, it hasn't worked – claims.
Conflict of interest between Warsaw and Berlin?
When asked about the risk of tensions resulting from the transfer of production from Germany to Poland, Gutheil replies that he does not see such a threat. As he points out, “ultimately it is an economic decision” about “what is the best way to grow the business and secure it.”
— From the Polish perspective, Germany is definitely the most important business partner. So if things are not good in Germany, it is also bad news for Poland, he reminds.
— We are in the same boat – says.
Germans ready for Port Poland
When asked about Polish public projects that are key for German companies, Lars Gutheil pointed to Port Polska.
— This is a huge project and Germany is already involved in it. The German company has already won the tender for the baggage handling system. This project is interesting not only because of the terminal itself, but also because of the entire railway technology, he added.
The leader of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry also talked about hopes related to energy. — We have strong onshore and offshore wind energy. This is also something that German companies are trying to participate in as part of the project, he says.
According to him, cooperation may also cover defense. And it's not just about Rheinmetall, the leading German supplier, but, for example, anti-drone defense.
Trump's policy exposes the EU's weaknesses
The German representative also referred to the global turmoil and the policy of the United States. He pointed out that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a much bigger problem for Europe than for the US and exposes the continent's current weaknesses.
— This shows that we need to really work on our own strengths and our politics – he said.
— But this also means that Poland must also speak with one voice, which is not always the case. So we must have a clear position in Poland, for Poland to also be part of the European position. And not just France, Italy and Germany, he concluded.
Grzegorz Kowalczyk, journalist of Business Insider Polska
