Demographic decline in Russia. The birth rate has hit its lowest level in 200 years, despite Putin's calls
Vladimir Putin's calls for more children, abortion restrictions and attempts to impose “traditional values” have failed to pull Russia out of demographic decline.
Fewer and fewer children are born in Russia PHOTO: X
In the first quarter of 2026, according to estimates made by a demographer consulted by the independent Russian publication, 272 thousand children were born, 6% less compared to the same period in 2025, writes The Moscow Times.
The number of births thus recorded the lowest level since the beginning of the 19th century.
Russia's demographic decline is even steeper when comparing data from 2026 to 2021, the last year before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Thus, the birth rate decreased by 12.5% compared to the first quarter of 2021 and by 38% compared to the same period in 2014 – a year in which a record birth rate was recorded and in which Russia illegally annexed the Crimean peninsula, writes
In the last 8 years, Russia has lost 4 million citizens
The estimates regarding the data related to the birth rate were made independently, by demography specialist Alexei Rakșa, as the official demographic data in the Russian Federation were classified from the spring of 2025 – since then the Russian state no longer publishes any data on the number of births or mortality.
The latest official data available is for 2024. It shows that the number of births that year had fallen to 1.222 million babies – the lowest since 1999, when Russia was going through an economic crisis and runaway inflation. According to Raksha's calculations, in 2025 the total number of births reached 1.178 million – the lowest in modern Russian history.
At the same time, the fertility rate – which reflects the average number of children born to the number of women of childbearing age, is also decreasing: if in 2015, the fertility rate was 1.77, in 2025 the figure is 1.41. During the USSR, the highest rate was recorded in 1990: 1.89.
In 2018, Vladimir Putin announced a national project to encourage the birth rate and stop the natural decline of the population. Despite this initiative, Russia lost about 4 million citizens.
In 2020, the Kremlin moved the population target to 2030. And at the beginning of Putin's sixth term, he ordered a demographic strategy. It sees the country's total fertility rate rising to 1.6 by 2030 and 1.8 by 2036. This would be the highest level since the Soviet era: in 1990, the total fertility rate (TFR) was 1.89.
As part of the strategy, officials plan to strengthen the institution of family and marriage and promote “traditional family values”. It is expected that images of large families will be incorporated into advertising and media content, and grandparents with many grandchildren will be introduced state awards.
