The average salary in Poland is breaking records. What next for the pace of wage growth and interest rates?
The Central Statistical Office reported on Tuesday morning that medium remuneration gross in the enterprise sector in March 2026 in Poland amounted to PLN 9,652, which means a new record (the previous one (PLN 9,583) was recorded in December 2025. The average salary increased by 6.6% year-on-year in March compared to 6.1% recorded in February and January. An increase of about 6.3% was expected last month.
In recent years, the pace of wage growth has been gradually slowing down. At the beginning of 2024, the average salary dynamics reached 12 percent, and in 2022 it was as much as 15-16 percent. This is good news for households, companies and the Monetary Policy Council.
Experts comment on the increase in wages in Poland
Bank Pekao economists wrote that the acceleration of wage growth was expected due to several factors. “First of all, the pre-Christmas shopping Sunday fell in March this year, and not in April as last year, which temporarily increased wages in trade (+0.1 percentage point to accelerate the dynamics). Secondly, a slightly larger number of working days (+1 y/y) and March warming resulted in a faster growth rate of wages in construction (+0.1 percentage point),” they pointed out.
They added, however, that the forecasts were surprised by the reading of wages in the energy and mining sectors, which explains the entire scale of today's surprise (0.3 percentage points). Most likely, we were dealing with the payment of bonuses in both sections, which resulted in a one-time acceleration of the salary growth rate.
“Despite a slight upward surprise in March, wage dynamics remain clearly lower than what we have observed in recent years. In our opinion, there is only one direction for wages – down. In the coming months, we should see the wage growth rate continue to move towards 6%. and below” – assessed Pekao experts. They added that the current uncertainty regarding the economic situation in the Middle East and worse inflation prospects, prompting employers to reduce costs, may also contribute to lower readings in the near future. They assessed that, however, this is not a strong effect, so they remain with the forecast of wage growth throughout 2026 by an average of 5.5%.
The growth rate of real wages slowed in March to the lowest level in a year.
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Central Statistical Office, own study
The acceleration of the annual wage dynamics compared to February is due to, among others, mining, where, despite a strong monthly decline related to payments of the so-called “fourteen” in February (−13.1% m/m) wages in March, due to a low base, increased by 6.7%. y/y (compared to −2.7% y/y a month earlier). Wage growth also accelerated in the production and supply of electricity, gas, steam and hot water (to 11.6% y/y from 8.6% y/y), accommodation and catering (to 6.8% y/y from 4.7% y/y) and in construction (to 8.0% y/y from 6.3% y/y). In agriculture and industrial processing, wage growth remained almost unchanged and amounted to 2.5%, respectively. y/y and 6.6 percent y/y.
PKO BP economists pointed out that in real terms (i.e. after adjusting for inflation), wages increased by 3.5% in March. up to a year. This is the 32nd consecutive positive result (this means the growing purchasing power of our wages), but the pace is the slowest since March 2025 (this is due, among other things, to the rebound in inflation in March to 3% due to the increase in fuel prices after the attack on Iran).
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“In light of the developing energy shock related to the conflict in the Middle East, high oil prices and increases in fuel prices, we are observing an increase in inflation. This will be a factor putting pressure on the real purchasing power of households and may limit consumption” – emphasized economists from ING Bank Śląski.
In the context of wage pressure, mBank economists emphasized that the momentum for wage growth has stabilized and at the moment, in their opinion, it does not look like anything bad is going to happen to it. “This is good news, considering the fact that we are facing a period of increased (fuel) inflation, which poses a certain risk for the core CPI,” they noted.
What next with interest rates in Poland?
“Although wage growth accelerated slightly in March to 6.6% year-on-year, it is still below the levels observed in 2021-2025. We assume that wage growth may slow down slightly by the end of the year, but it will amount to around 6% throughout the year. Just two months ago, we could have wondered how the Monetary Policy Council would react to such data, However, today the key factors for the Council remain the war in the Persian Gulf and energy prices, while processes on the labor market have faded into the background. – wrote PKO BP experts. They added that the data their forecast of stabilization of the NBP reference rate by the end of 2026 at 3.75% does not change their forecast.
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ING Bank Śląski economists emphasized that the decline in inflation around the NBP target, the small scale of the minimum wage increase (3% from the beginning of 2026) and moderate salary increases in the public sector (also 3%) limited the wage pressure in recent months. They added that this was indicated by both companies' pay raise plans and the expectations of employees themselves in surveys.
According to ING, the situation on the labor market is not currently a source of inflationary pressure and should not cause concern for the Monetary Policy Council in the context of potential pro-inflation factors in the coming quarters. In their opinion, the Council's attention will be focused on data on the structure of inflation and core inflation developments.
“In particular, the key to the durability of the inflation impulse generated by the increase in fuel prices will be the possible spread of price increases to other goods and services and the potential occurrence of second-round effects. As long as the energy shock has the features of a pure supply shock, the Monetary Policy Council may adopt a wait-and-see attitude. We expect that the NBP rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2026. The July NBP projection may allow for the first assessment of the scale of the impact of the situation on the oil market on the prospects for inflation and economic growth in Poland” – said experts from ING Bank Śląski.
