Polish exporter is not afraid of war? Surprising data about the confidence of our companies

75% of people expect further growth in exports, despite the conflict in the Middle East. exporters – according to a study conducted by Allianz Trade. However, Allianz Trade experts believe that in the face of a prolonged conflict, entrepreneurs' optimism may disappear.

The Allianz Trade survey also shows that 10% of people are optimistic about future prospects. fewer Vietnamese, American and Spanish companies than last year, but also by 9%. fewer Chinese companies.

“The conflict (in the Middle East – PAP) has made geopolitical and political risk the main global threat for 65% of companies, dethroning as the main problem the complexity and concentration of the supply chain (indicated by 45% of surveyed companies), which were the main cause for concern in 2025 in the face of the trade war,” said the authors of the study.

They reported that supply-related issues, such as supplier bankruptcies and raw material shortages, came in second place (57 percent).

Data presented in the report also shows that the percentage of companies receiving payments within 30 days has dropped from 10 to 7 percent since the beginning of the conflict, while the percentage of those waiting more than 70 days has increased from 15 to 24 percent. Another 43 percent companies expect a further deterioration in payment terms (an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the pre-conflict period), and the percentage of companies expecting a higher risk of non-payment increased to 40%. (an increase of 6 percentage points compared to the period before the conflict).

Changes on the market are also visible in the context of Polish exporters. As noted by Sławomir Bąk from the Polish branch of Allianz Trade, quoted in the report, this year's study indicates an improvement in the negotiating position of Polish companies.

“In previous years, Polish exporters offered longer trade credit terms than competitors from Western Europe – it was often their way of increasing the attractiveness of their offer. This could indicate a weaker negotiating position or a less reputable product. Today the situation is different,” Bąk explained.

According to him, currently 47 percent Polish exporters offer a trade credit term of 30-50 days, while in most countries the share of sales with such a term is several points lower, and at the same time the share of sales with longer customer credit terms is higher.

For example, 29% of respondents agree to terms of 50-70 days. Polish companies compared to 40 percent Italian and German and 37 percent Spanish. 2.7% agree to terms longer than 90 days. companies from Poland compared to 6 percent from Spain, 4.1 percent from Germany and 4.7 percent from France. “This means that Polish exporters are moving away from long-term lending to customers, common in previous years, which cannot be said about many Western European companies in the current situation,” said the authors of the study.

They added that the second signal of the growing maturity and position of Polish enterprises is “skillful limitation of geopolitical risk through the application of appropriate rules” “Polish exporters more often than those from other countries choose FOB (Free on Board) terms, transferring the costs and risk of transport and its insurance to the buyer. After the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, 48 percent of Polish exporters declare sales on FOB terms, in comparison – only 31 percent of British companies can afford to use such delivery terms, 31 percent French, 38% German and 42% Italian,” the authors indicated.

According to Allianz Trade, this is a positive signal, and Polish entrepreneurs can effectively use their advantages in ensuring liquidity and minimizing risk.

The study, which involved 6,000 companies from 13 markets, was conducted in two stages in February and the end of March 2026. It assesses the impact of the conflict on business expectations regarding exports, global trade and supply chains.

Allianz Trade operates in the field of trade credit insurance and guarantees, debt collection, trade credit and political risk. Allianz Trade's headquarters is in Paris, but the company is present in over 40 countries and employs 5.8 thousand people. (PAP)

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