publication
2026-04-17 18:30
Global stock markets regularly break historical records, and the Polish economy, with a projected GDP growth of nearly 4%, is becoming one of the leaders in the European Union. Are there still solid foundations behind the current growth, or is it just emotions related to the AI revolution? In the latest episode of Bankier Weekly, Michał Szymański, president of VIG/C-Quadrat TFI, analyzes the impact of tensions in the Middle East on inflation and indicates sectors on the Warsaw Stock Exchange that may bring profits in the coming months.
Fundamentals of the bull market and the AI ”engine”.
According to the program guest, the return of optimism on the stock exchanges is the result of solid economic growth in the USA and Poland and growing revenues of technology companies. Artificial intelligence remains a key driver. Although the phenomenon of monetization of AI solutions is progressing faster than in the times of the Internet bubble, the first warning signs are appearing on the market.
AI company valuations: they are ambitious and take into account a large dose of investors' emotions, which increases the risk of overvaluation in the event of disappointment with future results.
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Infrastructure is the basis. The growing advancement of AI products drives demand for processors and data, which supports the valuations of companies providing the necessary infrastructure.
Geopolitics and the specter of recession
Investors are closely monitoring the situation in Iran. A key flashpoint is the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil and LNG trade and a third of artificial fertilizers pass.
Risk of recession: currently assessed as minimal, but long-term (over 3 months) blocking of the strait could lead to the materialization of a worst-case scenario in the global economy.
Inflation impulse. Oil prices have a direct impact on inflation rates, which explains the nervous reaction of the bond market, which has reacted to geopolitical tensions much more sharply than the stock market.
Polish stock exchange: Where to look for profits?
Poland positively distinguishes itself from other emerging markets by being less dependent on oil supplies from troubled regions. According to Michał Szymański, foreign investors looking for exposure to the Polish macroeconomy should pay attention primarily to:
Banking sector: This is the natural first choice for international funds, because banks' results most quickly reflect the good condition of the entire economy
Small and medium-sized companies. Apart from the WIG20 index, the Bankier Weekly guest recommends a selective approach and focusing on specific entities, instead of simple sector investments.
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