HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) inflation in the euro area in March 2026 was 2.6%. year to year – the EU statistical office Eurostat reported on Thursday, presenting the final data. This means a clear acceleration from 1.9 percent. recorded in February, which is the result of the war in Iran, which caused a sudden increase in oil prices. More expensive fuels have already had a direct impact on the inflation rate, but if this effect persists, it may lead to indirect effects, i.e. inflation “spreading over” to other categories of consumer goods and services.
The following contributed to the annual inflation in the euro area in March 2026 (percentage points, percentage points): services (+1.49 percentage points), energy (+0.48 percentage points), food, alcohol and tobacco (+0.45 percentage points) and industrial goods excluding energy (+0.13 percentage points).
Inflation in the euro zone accelerated
The reading is slightly higher than the preliminary reading (2.5%) published at the end of March, which was then slightly better than forecasts (annual price dynamics indicators were 0.1 percentage point below forecasts). Inflation is therefore again above the European Central Bank's target of 2%.
Core inflation, i.e. an indicator that does not take into account energy, fuel and food prices (they are determined mainly on international markets), amounted to 2.3% in the euro zone in March. year to year, which was even slightly lower than in February (2.4%). This reading is consistent with forecasts and preliminary data. Core inflation shows internal demand pressure better than the HICP, and this is what the ECB mainly focuses on. As this indicator shows, more expensive fuel has not yet translated into an increase in other prices.
Year-on-year HICP inflation rates in the EU in March 2026 (percentage).
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Eurostat, own study
On a monthly basis, the HICP in the euro area amounted to as much as 1.3% in March, which is a significantly increased level taking into account the ECB's inflation target. The effect of the war in Iran and more expensive fuels is clearly visible here (forecasted 1.2%). In February, which was still too high a reading (partly due to seasonal factors and New Year's increases), it was 0.6%. To meet the ECB's inflation target, monthly inflation should be in the range of 0.2-0.3%. The base grew by 0.8% for a month, i.e. the dynamics was the same as in February.
Across the European Union, HICP inflation rose to 2.8% in March. with 2.1 percent in February and 2.5 percent a year ago. “The lowest annual inflation rates were recorded in Denmark (1.0%), the Czech Republic, Cyprus and Sweden (1.5% each). The highest annual inflation rates were recorded in Romania (9.0%), Croatia (4.6%) and Lithuania (4.4%). Compared to February 2026, annual inflation decreased in three Member States, remained stable in one and increased in twenty-three,” reads the release. Eurostat.
This is how Poland performed in the EU in terms of inflation in March
Inflation calculated according to the HICP method in Poland in March on an annual basis was 3.2%, which is the same as in January – Eurostat reported, which placed us sixth in the EU, i.e. we were slightly away from the inglorious top compared to the data for January (then we were in fifth place). Monthly prices in March in Poland increased by 0.9%.
The HICP is a harmonized index of consumer prices, calculated according to the unified methodology of the Statistical Office of the European Union. In accordance with the inflation criterion included in the Maastricht Treaty, the HICP is the basis for assessing price stabilization. Data for HICP inflation come from household budget expenditure and national accounts, and for CPI only from household budget expenditure.
For comparison, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), consumer inflation in March amounted to 3 percent, i.e. increased from 2.1 percent. in February. The target level for the National Bank of Poland is 2.5%. +/— 1 percentage point Compared to the previous month, prices of consumer goods and services increased by 1.1%. What increased in price the most in March? No one will probably be surprised if we write that fuel. Compared to February diesel oil increased by 21.4% and gasoline by 12.9%.
