The main reason is the uncertainty related to the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on global energy markets.
The IEA report published in March emphasized that the collapse in demand for oil, already visible in the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East, may deepen as a result of continuing shortages and rising prices of the raw material.
The organization points to unprecedented disruptions in oil supply, which are a direct result of the conflict in the region.
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— The war in the Middle East has led to the worst oil crisis in history, the report noted. In March 2026, the supply of the raw material decreased by 10.1 million barrels per day, reaching 97 million barrels per day.
Future prospects remain uncertain
The IEA estimates that in 2026 global oil consumption will average 104.26 million barrels per day, which is a slight decrease compared to the projected level of 104.34 million barrels per day in 2025. However, these forecasts may change depending on the development of the geopolitical situation and the condition of the global economy.
Announcement of a two-week truce in the conflict in the Middle East brought temporary relief to markets that have been struggling with supply disruptions for a long time. However, the authors of the report point out that it is still uncertain whether the ceasefire will lead to lasting peace and the resumption of regular oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz.
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According to the IEA, unblocking this key transport route is crucial to easing the pressure on global energy supplies, stabilizing raw material prices and improving the global economic situation.
