Sunday's parliamentary elections in Hungary were not an ordinary vote – it was a plebiscite on the shape of Hungarian democracy. This is evidenced not only by the high temperature of the political dispute and the intense election campaign, but also by the record turnout.
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It was very high from the very morning and remained well above the levels of previous years. At At 1 p.m. it reached 54.1 percent, which is more by 12.2 percentage points. than in 2018 and by 14.1 percentage points. than in 2022 (at the same time). Until 6:30 p.m. 77.8 percent took part in the vote. eligible and there is a chance that before the venues were closed, the turnout reached nearly 80%. In the previous elections in 2022, the final turnout was 69.6%.
The first results of the parliamentary elections in Hungary
In this year's elections, five political forces put forward their candidates on national lists: Prime Minister Orban's Fidesz-KDNP coalition, Peter Magyar's TISHA, the far-right Mi Hazank, the most pro-EU Democratic Coalition, and the anti-system Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party.
National Electoral Office (NVI) shortly after 20.00 announced the first partial election results. They show that after converting 3 percent Fidesz won 53 percent of the votes. support, and Tisza, Peter Magyar's opposition party, about 36 percent.
It is worth noting that the initial data probably comes from smaller rural committees, which favored Fidesz in the past, although it is not known whether this was the same this time. The indications will change many times. Only around midnight should we know the results from most districts (approximately 80-90 percent of the counted votes), which will allow us to determine the winner quite precisely.
— We hope that the ruling parties will be given a mandate to govern again for another four years – said Gergely Gulyas, head of the office of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban after the elections. He also said that the large turnout, which was partly the result of the mobilization of Fidesz and KDNP voters, is a signal that Hungarian democracy “is extremely strong.”
— I don't want to win the polls, but I want to win the elections. Therefore, let's wait for the results. Based on the information we have, we are cautiously optimistic, but we must remain patient Peter Magyar called.
Peter Magyar (left), leader of the opposition Tisza party, and Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary and leader of Fidesz.
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Balint Szentgallay/NurPhoto via Getty Images, Sean Gallup/Getty Images / Getty Images
Important caveat: exit polls are not conducted in Hungary. There is also no traditional electoral silence there. Instead, shortly after polls closed, estimates emerged based on polls conducted over the past three days. According to data published by the Medián polling agency, Tisza's party obtained 55.5 percent. votes, and Fidesz about 37.9 percent. The far-right Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) was expected to win 3.9 percent. , which means it would be below the threshold, reports Reuters.
Translating these figures into seats, Tisza would be close to obtaining a two-thirds majority in parliament, with a number of seats of 131-139, while Fidesz is expected to obtain a number of seats of 59-67. However, these are still only surveys, so they should be approached with caution.
According to pollster 21 Kutatokozpont, Magyar's party won 55 percent. votes (which would translate into 132 seats, giving it a simple majority), and Orban 38 percent. Mi Hazank reached the 5 percent threshold.
The specificity of the Hungarian electoral system
On Sunday, Hungarians elected 199 deputies of the National Assembly (Orszaggyules), a unicameral parliament. 106 of them are elected in single-member constituencies, and the remaining 93 – from national lists in a modified proportional system. In each district, the candidate who receives the most votes wins, even if he or she does not obtain a majority.
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Every eligible Hungarian citizen voting in the country has the right to cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member district, and the other for a party or nationality list in the case of people belonging to one of the minorities registered in Hungary. Seats from national lists are divided by the D'Hondt method, well known in Poland. Voters residing outside the country cast one vote, only for the national list.
However, the system is more complex due to the mechanism of compensatory votes. All votes cast for losing candidates in single-member constituencies and the winner's surplus of votes, i.e. his advantage over the second-place candidate, are added to the results of the national lists.
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This greatly rewards the winning game. Fidesz has won a constitutional majority in every election since 2014, although during that time it only won over 50 percent once. support.
The national electoral threshold is 5%. for one party, 10 percent with a coalition of two parties and 15 percent for a coalition of three or more parties. Ethnic minorities, however, can win one seat with a reduced threshold of 0.27%.
