2026-04-10 10:07
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2026-04-10 10:07
The President of the NBP declared on Thursday that in the current conditions, the Monetary Policy Council does not intend to raise interest rates, even though the market is still pricing in the scenario of higher rates. However, the zloty reacted calmly and the euro rate remained close to PLN 4.25.
– Everything depends on the situation in the Middle East, but I do not expect any changes in interest rates in the near future – replied the head of the NBP, Adam Glapiński, when asked about the possibility of an interest rate increase. The FRA market is currently pricing in one 25-point rate increase by the end of 2026. Just a few days ago, prices included increases of 75 bp.
President Glapiński added, however, that if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates and the Strait of Hormuz is further blocked, there is a risk of the so-called second round effects. – In the described scenario, we would obviously have to increase interest rates. Whether this would happen suddenly or gradually is a different issue, added the president of the NBP.
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– We maintain that the Council will remain in this mode in the coming months wait-and-see and will refrain from making decisions at least until the war in Iran ends permanently – this is how PKO BP economists commented on Thursday's speech of the MPC chairman. Therefore, they do not expect that the signals coming from the Council will currently have a significant impact on the fate of the zloty.
This position also seems to be shared by the majority of currency market participants. On Friday at 10:00 the euro exchange rate was PLN 4.2529 and remained unchanged compared to Thursday evening. A day earlier, the euro became cheaper by 0.8 groszy and was the cheapest in almost a month.
Over the previous days, the Polish zloty was supported by the situation on the euro-dollar pair, where we observed a quite dynamic weakening of the American currency. The traditional relationship is that a weaker dollar translates into higher valuations of currencies from emerging markets, which still include Poland.
On Friday morning, the price for one dollar on the domestic market was PLN 3.6410, which is one penny more than the day before. On Thursday, the “green” price was the cheapest since March 3. The USD/PLN rate is now in a key place from the point of view of technical analysis. There was a chance to negate this year's upward movement, which heralded the end of the downward trend in the dollar-zloty pair that had lasted for the previous three years.
In turn, the Swiss franc rose in price by over a penny, reaching PLN 4.6076. On Thursday, the CHF/PLN exchange rate was the lowest since February, at times even going below the line of PLN 4.60. This means that since the March peak, the Helvetian currency has become cheaper by almost 20 groszy.
The British pound was valued at PLN 4.8862 after sterling lost nearly 1.5 cents on the Polish market on Thursday. Therefore, the pound-zloty pair has been behaving similarly to the CHF/PLN exchange rate in recent weeks and is systematically eliminating the increases from the first half of March.
K.K
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