There was supposed to be peace, but it's tense. Red on European stock exchanges, but WIG20 is green again
After a euphoric Wednesday, which brought historical records on the broad market, Thursday's session on the WSE passed in a calmer atmosphere. Although the main indices are trying to stay above the line, dark clouds have hung over the trading floor in the form of a crumbling truce in the Middle East.
Thursday's trading on the Warsaw Stock Exchange started with slight declines, which was a natural reaction to the cooling of moods on global markets. Over time, however, demand began to emerge in the segment of the largest companies.
At the end of the session, the WIG20 index increased by 0.52%, the broad WIG increased by 0.33%. Medium-sized and smaller entities performed worse – mWIG40 fell by 0.26 percent, while sWIG80 lost 0.14 percent. Total market turnover remained at a solid level of PLN 2.35 billion on the broad market and PLN 1.97 billion on WIG20, confirming the high activity of investors.
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A fragile truce and geopolitical tension
Thursday's mood was shaped by the situation in the Middle East. On Wednesday, the market celebrated a two-week truce between the USA, Israel and Iran, which allowed the WIG index to climb to the highest levels in history. However, “optimism has short legs” – just 24 hours after the agreement entered into force, information about its violation circulated around the world. Iranian authorities said that Israel violated the ceasefire by attacking Lebanon, accusing the Israeli army of genocide. The Israeli and American sides explained the attacks by excluding this area from the agreement.
Such “scratches” immediately translated into the return of the geopolitical risk premium. The market, which only yesterday was betting on de-escalation, today had to face the vision of returning to open conflict. It was these reports that became the main fuel for increases in commodity prices, which is clearly visible in oil prices, which increased by over 4%.
Europe is in decline, Wall Street is looking for direction
The mood in Warsaw, although relatively stable in the blue chip segment, contrasted with the red on the main trading floors of the Old Continent. At a time when the WSE was struggling to maintain growth, European benchmarks were under selling pressure. The German DAX lost as much as 1.2 percent, the French CAC 40 dropped by 0.8 percent, and the British FTSE 100 fell by 0.5 percent.
There were mixed signals from overseas. The American Dow Jones Industrial lost 0.3%, and the broad S&P 500 index oscillated close to the reference level with a loss of 0.15%. similarly to the technological Nasdaq Composite, losing around 0.2%, which may indicate that investors are very cautious about further developments in the international arena.
Orlen is fueled by oil, Budimex is still strong
In the domestic market, Orlen was the absolute leader in attention (3.69%). The shares of the Płock concern were valued at PLN 136, which means that the company is one step away from its historical records. The impetus for the growth was a sudden, over 4% increase in crude oil prices on global markets (a barrel of Brent was back to around USD 98.4). Even the words of the Minister of Energy about the “open issue” of a tax on excess profits did not scare investors – in the face of the rising price of raw materials, the market focused on the company's potential margins.
In addition to Orlen, Budimex (3.32%) was also among the growth leaders in WIG20, continuing its good streak after Wednesday's successful session. Allegro also recorded a slight rebound (0.86%) to PLN 27. It is worth noting that the price in the ABB process (sale of 65 million shares by Cidinan shareholder) was set at PLN 25.60, which initially weighed on the price, but market demand quickly took over.
The session for the copper giant had a changeable course. KGHM initially lost money in response to declines in copper prices on the LME in London (down by 0.5%). However, in the second part of the day, buyers took over the initiative, trying to continue the rally from Wednesday, when the plant's shares gained nearly 10%. Ultimately, the price ended at PLN 307, i.e. by 0.7%. lower than Wednesday's closing.
The banking sector is on the defensive
Not all market segments had reasons to be satisfied. After yesterday's records of the WIG Banki sub-index, profits were realized on Thursday, even though the Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates unchanged and the President of the National Bank of Poland announced at a press conference that he did not expect any changes in interest rates in the near future.
WIG Banki fell by 0.53%, and almost all key entities were under pressure. mBank (-1.67%) from WIG20 and ING Bank Śląski (-1.14%), Bank Handlowy (-0.51%) and Millennium (-0.62%) from mWIG40 lost more. Alior remained relatively the strongest (0.36%), but the largest ones such as PKO (-0.41%), Pekao (-0.37%) and Santander (-0.59%) were in decline.
The clothing sector fared better. LPP (0.98%) and Modivo (0.6%) recorded increases despite morning declines. It is worth noting that while LPP is in a solid plus year-on-year (44%), Modivo remains in a long-term downward trend, losing 60% since May 2025. its value.
The gaming giant, CD Projekt (-3.37%), also corrected the recent dynamic growth, despite the release of the “Cyberpunk 2077” update for the new PlayStation 5 Pro console. On Thursday, the company's shares were the weakest in WIG20.
Orange shines, Scanway jumps to sWIG80
There was just as much going on behind the scenes of the blue chips. The star in the mWIG40 index was Orange (6.38%), which more than made up for Wednesday's losses. Mining companies also took a breather – Bogdanka (1.95%) and JSW (0.65%) tried to stabilize their prices after dramatic, double-digit declines in the previous session. There were mixed moods in the energy sector: Tauron (2.32%) and PGE (1.64%) were growing, while Enea (-0.38%) remained in decline.
In the small company segment. Medicalgorithmics (-6.76%) was a weak link despite an increase in revenues in the first quarter of 2026 to PLN 10.2 million, investors were disappointed by the EBITDA level (PLN 1 million). Onde (-2.67%) was also under pressure – here the net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 was a disappointment, as it missed analysts' expectations, despite optimistic announcements regarding the order portfolio (backlog higher by almost 36% y/y) and the recommendation of a dividend of PLN 0.31 per share.
The controlling company Onde Erbud also showed results (0%) and were much better than the consensus (EBIT of PLN 11.8 million compared to the forecast loss). Investors were concerned that the value of the order portfolio decreased by PLN 300 million year on year. A bright spot was Scanway (5.9%), which grew on the wave of information about the company's entry into the sWIG80 index after the session on April 10.
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