The initial drop in oil prices proved short-lived, as investors quickly began to worry whether the truce would actually last.
Read also: President Adam Glapiński speaks after the Monetary Policy Council's decision on interest rates
As a result, raw material prices have gone up again, and drivers should not count on significant discounts at gas stations for now.
Oil is still much more expensive than before the conflict in Iran
The price of Brent crude oil increased by over 3.5% on Thursday, exceeding USD 98. per barrel. Since the beginning of the war, which began on February 28, wholesale oil prices have already increased by about 35 percent.
This directly translates into fuel prices, because crude oil is their key ingredient. Even if the situation stabilizes, it may take time for prices to return to previous levels.
In the daily interval the price of diesel on the wholesale market has increased today from almost PLN 1.3 thousand to over PLN 1.4 thousand. hole. per tonne, which is an increase of over 10%.
Strait of Hormuz at the center of tensions
A key element of the agreement was to ensure safe transportation through the Strait of Hormuz – one of the most important routes for global oil and gas supplies.
Meanwhile, there are conflicting signals. On the one hand, Iran declares its readiness to ensure navigation safety, on the other hand, it warns that vessels passing without consent may be destroyed.
Additionally, reports about the possible continued blockade of the route increase concerns about long-term disruptions in energy supplies.
Read also: The Monetary Policy Council decided on interest rates. In the background is the war in Iran
Sea transport still paralyzed
Before the conflict broke out, approximately 130 ships passed through the strait daily. Currently, traffic is much lighter, with only a small number of individuals using this route.
According to companies monitoring maritime transport even in an optimistic scenario, at least 10 days are needed to clear the arrears. It may take weeks or even months for global trade to return to normal levels.
The situation is further complicated by information chaos. As representatives of the shipping industry point out in an interview with the British BBC television, transport planning has become extremely difficult because conditions change practically from day to day.
There are also concerns about the possible introduction of fees for passage through the strait. If they were high, they could significantly increase transportation costs — even more than going through the Panama Canal or Suez Canal.
This, in turn, would translate into prices of fuel and many other products around the world.
