The resource within range of Iranian missiles on which tens of millions of people in the Gulf depend. Which are the most vulnerable countries?
Iran has threatened as early as March 22 that an American-Israeli attack on energy infrastructure would trigger retaliation targeting water desalination plants in the countries of the Arabian peninsula. According to a Reuters analysis, strikes against them could have devastating consequences.
US President Donald Trump has invoked the possibility of attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure since March 21. The next day, Tehran's reply came. Ebrahim Zolfaqari, the spokesman of the Iranian army, mentioned that his country will undertake similar attacks on the countries of the Gulf, also mentioning attacks on water desalination plants, which are the main or even the only source of drinking water for the states of the region.
Countries that depend entirely on desalinated water
In the United Arab Emirates, desalinated water represents about 80% of the drinking water supplied. Bahrain has relied only on desalinated water since 2016, with ground water reserved exclusively for emergency situations. Qatar is entirely dependent on desalinated water, in Kuwait the percentage is 90%, and Oman obtains 86% of its water through desalination. Saudi Arabia is a bit better having underground resources so that only half of the water is obtained through desalination. Thus, more than 61,000,000 people depend mostly on desalinated water.
The risk is all the greater as the desalination process in the Gulf is concentrated, with a small number of plants. Many of them are cogeneration plants, meaning they also produce electricity.
These plants are within range of Iranian missiles and drones, and attacks on them could cause economic and humanitarian shocks, an Atlantic Council analysis said. Water supply could be interrupted for homes, hotels, companies, institutions, in addition to electricity interruptions, to the point where the population could be evacuated from certain localities.
How much reserves are stored
The risks have been known for a long time. Thus, a 2008 US diplomatic cable published by Wikileaks stated that an attack on the Jubail desalination plant and associated energy infrastructure could result in the evacuation of Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh, in less than a week. To avoid this situation, the Saudi authorities built in 2023 the largest water reservoir in the world near the capital.
Qatar estimated several years ago that the country could run out of potable water within three days if its desalination plants were attacked. For a country where temperatures reach 50 degrees Celsius in summer, urgent measures were needed, so in 2018 15 huge water reservoirs were completed, each with a capacity of around 454,000 tons.
Saudi Arabia has the largest desalination capacity, followed by the United Arab Emirates and Israel, according to consultancy Blackridge. The largest Saudi plants are Ras al Khair and Jubail, which cost around $8.2 billion to build.
The emirate has four main plants with a total cost of $5.3 billion: one at Dubai's Jebel Ali port at Taweelah between Dubai and Abu Dhabi, plus one each in the emirates of Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain.
And Israel is vulnerable
Israel is not immune from the point of view of water resources either. The $500,000,000 Sorek plant can process 640,000 cubic meters of water per day and provides 20% of the country's water demand.
The desalination plant is located near Tel Aviv and was built with the help of the Singapore company Hutchison Water, part of a concern, CK Hutchison Holdings, headquartered in Hong Kong.
Reuters notes that most desalination plants in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates do not have American investors.
The Saudi ones were built with the help of Siemens (Germany) and Engie (France), and Acciona Energia (Spain) and BESIX Group (Belgium) are involved in the Emirates.
