In an interview in the “Onet Morning Finansowo” program, Kamil Sobolewski talks about how the conflict and political twists translated into sudden volatility of raw materials and sudden movements in gold. It also refers to suspicious transactions concluded just before Donald Trump's key entry on Iran.
Quoted fragment of the program:
— There's a simple reason behind gold's volatility: too many have bought into the safe haven myth. When a crisis hits, those who need liquidity sell gold – and at the worst time. It doesn't matter whether they are oil importers or Gulf states forced to reach for reserves. The effect is that the “safe” asset becomes cheaper – says Kamil Sobolewski. — In my twenty years in the markets, it's a recurring theme: Default correlations break, and breaking them becomes a powerful market force – he adds.
See also: What to do with your savings now? The war in Iran changed everything
– Whenever habits that are not based on solid foundations are broken, a great source of profits appears – for those who think against the norm – emphasizes Sobolewski. — The myth that gold “must” increase in price during a conflict has been busted. If tensions around Iran begin to subside, we will find a fundamental justification for the price decline, he adds.
However, in recent days there has been a surprising turn: US President Donald Trump announced the suspension of some strikes and suggested “productive talks” with Tehran; Iran denied this. Markets reacted with relief – oil prices plummeted and Wall Street rebounded after a series of declines.
An illegal trick by the president's people?
Suspicious transactions attracted media attention moments before Donald Trump's entry about negotiations with Iran.
— From a speculator's point of view, this is a dream arrangement: buy risk and sell “insurance” just before the announcement – potentially huge profits – says Sobolewski. — The problem is that it could be a crime. This is called insider trading, he adds.
— The SEC is watching over the US market. They have the tools to identify the problem in a few days: check whether it has occurred, who it affects – and put those responsible on the bench – emphasizes Sobolewski.
It is worth recalling that after the change of administration Paul Atkins is the head of the Commission today, perceived as favorable to crypto markets, but traditionally taking a hard line in the area of information fraud.
See also: ETS certificates. Here's how you can turn them into an alternative source of income
So will American surveillance intervene? — Yes, it would be very easy to determine this if there was a mandate and political will for it, says the economist. — Are there political muzzles? That would be a conspiracy theory. We don't know. We see side effects and try to draw conclusions based on incomplete data, he sums up.
Onet Morning. Financially
“Onet Rano. Finansowo” is a weekly program in which Business Insider journalists talk to invited experts from the world of business and politics about current events and issues related to the Polish economy, public finances and the impact of politics on the wallets of every Pole.
The program can be watched every Wednesday at 10 on the main page of the Onet portal, and from 11 as podcast at Onet Audio.
