When will jet fuel shortages begin if Gulf war continues: 'This is when Europe's last kerosene shipment arrives' / Rising ticket prices and risk of flight cancellations this summer

After a first announcement made by the Spanish low-cost airline Volotea regarding the reduction of its flights, it was then the turn of Ryanair and Lufthansa to bring bad news. The Irish airline has announced that if the Gulf War does not end within a month, fuel supplies to Europe could be cut off from June.

• The CEO of Ryanair, Michael O'Leary, says that the lack of fuel for planes could force the low-cost airline and its rivals to consider canceling some flights during the summer season, reports the Italian newspaper Il Fatto Quotidiano, quoted by Rador Radio Romania. For its part, the German national airline Lufthansa is also preparing for the emergency situation by considering the possibility of grounding 40 planes during the summer season.

The problem, as explained by another Italian newspaper, Corriere della Sera, is that the last shipment of aviation kerosene will arrive in Europe on April 9, at the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. It is carried by the Singaporean tanker “Rong Lin Wan”, which passed through the Strait of Hormuz shortly before the closure.

“According to our estimates, by the end of April, the beginning of May, we will find ourselves having half of the kerosene we need in Europe,” the head of operations of one of the continent's largest companies told Corriere della Sera. “We could gain three to five weeks by calling on some of our strategic reserves and postponing refinery cleanup operations, which usually take place in the spring. But it won't be enough.”

The immediate risk is that ticket prices will increase in the coming months

The numbers are not encouraging at all. Already, jet fuel imports into Europe have fallen 40% since last week, hitting their lowest level since 2022, when the war in Ukraine halted trade.

In this context, a low-cost airline like Ryanair risks a reduction in supply. “If the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens by the middle or end of April, there would be no risk,” O'Leary told Sky News. “If there was a 10% or 20% risk to fuel supply in June, July or August, we and other airlines would have to consider canceling flights, or reducing capacity.”

The immediate risk is that ticket prices will increase in the coming months. Fares could rise by more than 3% over the summer, Ryanair's CEO estimates. In January, the low-cost airline said it had covered 80 percent of its fuel needs by March 2027, based on a crude oil price of $67 a barrel. Today, the price of the barrel is 106 dollars.

Lufthansa has not yet made any official decision on canceling flights, but CEO Carsten Spohr has announced that ticket prices will be affected by rising fuel costs. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government has already stepped in, approving a plan to cut air traffic tax from July in an effort to support the aviation sector. “If there are kerosene shortages, they are likely to be felt outside Europe first,” Spohr assured, adding that some Asian airports are no longer accepting additional flights due to limited fuel availability.

When the last shipment of kerosene for Europe arrives

The oil tanker “Rong Lin Wan”, a giant of the seas with a length of 250 meters, is currently sailing along the coast of West Africa. When it docks in the port of Rotterdam, in the Netherlands, at the end of April 9, it will be the last ship loaded with aviation fuel that could leave the Persian Gulf for Europe, writes Corriere della Sera, quoted by Rador Radio Romania.

After leaving Mina Al Ahmadi (Kuwait) on February 26, initially bound for Malta, according to Marine Traffic, it arrived just in time to pass through Hormuz before Iran's blockade of the strait. After that, no more jet fuel will arrive from the Middle East for European carriers.

Therefore, one of the most significant consequences of the war between the US, Israel and Iran affects air transport. Europe does not import large amounts of crude oil from the Gulf, but about half of the jet fuel at European airports comes from refineries in the Strait of Hormuz, according to an analysis of official documents. Another significant source is India, but with this crisis hitting Southeast Asia hardest, oil tankers are now directing their traffic to the East, where companies have higher profit margins.

Europe also sources from the United States and West Africa, but this is not enough to fill the gap. According to an analysis of official data by the Corriere della Sera newspaper, in 2025, while Italy produced 674,000 barrels of jet fuel domestically, it consumed almost double that amount (1.3 million), thus importing half of its daily needs. Poland had to procure almost 97% of its kerosene from abroad, Greece 82%, and Spain and Portugal 70%.

The critical situation does not appear out of nowhere. As the Italian daily reported in November, Europe has been experiencing a decline in kerosene supplies for several years. This is not only due to the closing of refineries and the decline in local production of jet fuel (as it is less profitable), but also to environmental regulations requiring greater use of biofuels (which are in short supply and cost five times as much) and sanctions against Russia, which are rapidly reducing availability.

Europe's jet fuel imports fell to 420,000 barrels per day, down 40% from the previous week and the lowest level since March 2022, according to analyst firm Vortexa, shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and sanctions-enforced energy blockade. Meanwhile, stocks at the independent storage facility Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, a trading hub for oil, are already below the average for the period, according to Insights Global.

“Replacing these volumes will be extremely difficult, especially as traditional alternative suppliers – such as South Korea and China – introduce export restrictions to protect their domestic markets, given that more than 50% of the crude oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz goes to East Asia,” argues Kpler's George Shaw. “This is causing strong fluctuations in the Singapore market and causing cargo ships to divert from European routes to exploit higher value opportunities elsewhere.”

“All airlines are working on a contingency plan in case there is not enough fuel at the airports for everyone, or if it runs out,” says one CEO. “The calculation is simple: you cannot operate the same number of flights without the same amount of jet fuel. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in April, we will see hundreds of planes on the ground and thousands of flights will have to be canceled.” Lufthansa, among other scenarios, is considering grounding 20-40 planes.

It's not just about quantity, it's also about price. In recent days, a ton of kerosene has reached almost $1,800, more than double the price since the end of February. The situation is also compounded by the fact that many carriers made advance purchases – and at controlled prices – of jet fuel, but based their agreements on the cost of crude oil. What has increased even more is the “crack spread”, i.e. the refining margin, which is not included in the contracts and is therefore borne entirely by the carriers.

The biggest concern for European airline executives concerns the summer season. If the situation is not resolved soon, the risk is that between June and September – when traffic and revenue peak – there will be a shortage that will force reduced operations, particularly at tourist airports and islands, which are harder to resupply.

And even if Hormuz were to reopen soon, a full recovery would take weeks or months. Among the measures, in extreme cases, are the reduction of flights on the routes with the highest daily frequencies and the reduction of operations to Asia or on longer routes.

“If the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens by the middle or end of April, then there is no risk to supply,” Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair, Europe's main low-cost airline, told Sky News. “If the war continues and supply disruptions persist, we believe there is a real risk that a limited portion – perhaps 10%, 20% or 25% – of our supply will be at risk between May and June.”

Olivier Jankovec, managing director of ACI Europe, the association representing the continent's airports, offers assurances. “Our survey of jet fuel supplies at European airports shows that 86% of respondents report stock levels in line with normal. There is therefore no indication of an immediate risk of systemic shortages at airports.” That said, warns Jankovec, “some caution is required” and calls for “comprehensive mapping of jet fuel production and refining capacity against actual and planned production.”