2026-03-27 15:34
publication
2026-03-27 15:34
Inflation rose to 3.1% in March. with 2.1 percent in February – estimate Santander Bank Polska analysts. The main reason for the increase in inflation, according to the bank's economists, is the increase in domestic fuel prices by approximately 18%. compared to February, resulting from the situation in the Middle East.
“Our estimates indicate that the CPI inflation rate increased to 3.1% y/y in March, from 2.1% in February, which was largely due to the strong increase in domestic fuel prices by approximately 18% m/m, resulting from the situation in the Middle East,” Santander Bank Polska analysts wrote in a commentary on Friday.
In their opinion, energy prices have probably decreased slightly, mainly due to the gas tariff reduction previously adopted by the Energy Regulatory Office. Food prices also fell slightly in March – by approx. 0.2%. compared to February. Santander economists also estimated that core inflation excluding food and energy prices in March “would probably remain (…) almost stable, around 2.6% y/y.”
“The government's decision to temporarily reduce indirect taxes on fuels has the potential to offset most of the increase in fuel prices observed in March, assuming that global oil and gas prices do not continue to rise, which could reduce CPI in April back to close to 2% y/y. However, if the price of Brent crude oil remained at its current level (approx. USD 110/barrel) or higher for longer, CPI inflation would start to climb again in the following months upwards, probably exceeding 4% at the end of the year, assuming no additional actions from the government,” Santander economists wrote. (PAP)
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