Orban has outplayed the EU once again. But this time it may be his last victory

Ashley Davis20/03/2026

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Viktor Orban has been participating in European summits for 16 years. During what may turn out to be his farewell, he had to deal with EU leaders playing the role of “good and bad cop”, trying to persuade him to agree to a loan for Ukraine in the amount of EUR 90 billion (approx. PLN 390-400 billion).

He resisted everything.

However, his victory may be short-lived.

The longest-serving head of government in the EU, facing elections in less than a month – which it is predicted that he will lose – has long been a thorn in the side of Brussels (which means, in practice, also Paris, Berlin and many other capitals). There was no sign at Thursday's European Council meeting that, even as he prepares to leave the scene, he has become any less stubborn – or more likeable.

Nobody can blackmail the European Council or the EU institutions. What Hungary is doing is completely unacceptable

– said the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, who chaired the meeting.

President of the European Council, Antonio CostaAndriy Zhyhaylo/Oboz.ua/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images / Contriubutor / Getty Images

The Hungarian Prime Minister withdrew from the promise made during the December summit, when he declared his consent to the loan. Thus – as the leaders emphasized – it undermines the foundations of the EU's decision-making process, which is based on governments keeping firm commitments.

Orban “is violating one of the basic principles of our cooperation,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said after the summit. His refusal to approve the loan after formal support “is a serious breach of loyalty between member states, weakens the EU's ability to act and damages its reputation.”

With Europe looking helpless in the face of an escalating war in the Middle East, leaders hoped they could at least mobilize resources for Ukraine to help it push back against Russia – in a conflict where the EU still has real influence.

However, the mood was gloomy. Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who for a long time brought a certain optimism to EU meetings, this time – by connecting remotely – made the situation worse rather than better.

“You have to treat him like a six-year-old, you have to flatter him.”

EU leaders divided into two camps, trying to convince Orban to change his position. Most, including Costa, put on heavy pressure.

It was very, very harsh criticism and everyone felt that it couldn't go on like this. I have never heard such direct and strong words addressed to anyone at an EU summit before

– said Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.

Costa said no leader had ever crossed “this red line” before.

Some leaders, however, tried a different approach. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and, although less clearly, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever tried to appeal to Orban's ego by showing understanding of his position, diplomats reported.

You have to treat him like a six-year-old, you have to flatter him

– said one of them.

Giorgia Meloni, Viktor OrbanOLIVIER MATTHYS / PAP

Before the summit, the EU reached a compromise that was supposed to allow Orban to save face in the election campaign and at the same time agree to the loan. The EU was ready to suspend the disbursement of funds until the resumption of oil transport through the Druzhba pipeline, which carries Russian oil to Hungary and was damaged by a Russian drone in January.

In recent weeks, Orban has linked the pipeline issue to the loan and accused Ukraine of deliberately delaying repairs – portraying himself in the campaign as a defender of the country's interests. Zelensky responded that he did not want to repair the infrastructure that the Russians have repeatedly attacked and that helps finance their invasion. Costa recalled that Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Russia has damaged the pipeline 23 times.

Today I managed to break the oil blockade that Zelensky imposed on us. I defended the country's interests

— Orban said after the summit.

“He played harder than we expected”

Chancellor Merz was among a group of leaders who hoped that Zelensky's speech would ease tensions and assure Orban that the pipeline would be repaired. However, the opposite happened – the Ukrainian president adopted a more confrontational tone.

Zelensky played harder than we expected

– said one of the officials. Perhaps he thought he could wait it out. If Orban wins the election, “perhaps Zelensky assumes that he will then soften his rhetoric.”

Volodymyr ZelenskyTetiana Dzhafarova / East News

Although Ukraine urgently needs EUR 90 billion (approx. PLN 390-400 billion), it now has a little more time – the International Monetary Fund recently approved a loan of USD 8 billion. (approx. PLN 32 billion). According to information, Kyiv should maintain financial liquidity at least until the beginning of May.

The animosity between Orban and Zelensky runs deep — and on Thursday it was clearly visible. The Hungarian prime minister stood up and stood behind the other leaders, looking at the screen with obvious disapproval as Zelensky spoke.

After 90 minutes – when Zelensky did not budge and Orban remained adamant – the leaders ended the discussion, announcing that they would return to the topic at the next meeting.

It is assumed that after the Hungarian elections on April 12, the situation will change – one way or another. If Orban loses, his successor may be willing to end the blockade in exchange for unlocking EU funds for Budapest.

France and Germany did not want to spend much time or political capital trying to convince Orban

– said one of the officials. There was also no willingness to help him in the election campaign.

If Orban is re-elected — which many leaders consider likely — he may be more willing to accept a loan once oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline resume.

However, if it continues to block the decision, various sanctions will be considered at the summit in Cyprus (April 23-24): freezing further funds, a lawsuit against Hungary in the Court of Justice of the EU, financial penalties and even the so-called nuclear option – Article 7, which could deprive a country of voting rights in the EU.

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