Finally, good news for coffee lovers. After months of rising coffee prices, they may soon fall significantly, just as happened on the cocoa market after reaching record levels in 2024, Reuters predicts.
Such predictions were a major topic of discussion at the National Coffee Association's (NCA) annual convention in Tampa, Florida.
According to Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, a decline in coffee prices is almost certain. “I would be shocked if that didn't happen. I think coffee is the new cocoa“- she said.
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Record prices and their consequences
New York cocoa prices hit record highs in December 2024, exceeding $12,000. hole. per ton. The cause was unfavorable weather conditions that limited supply. However, just a year later, prices dropped by over 70 percent as consumers began to limit purchases of more expensive chocolates and manufacturers reduced packaging weights or replaced cocoa with cheaper ingredients.
A similar trend – as reported by the agency – was observed on the Arabica coffee market. In February 2025, prices of this raw material also reached record levels, mainly due to production problems resulting from unfavorable weather in tropical countries. Additionally, President Donald Trump's tariff policy has disrupted the coffee trade. However, expected harvest improvements in Brazil, the largest coffee producer, have pushed prices down in 2026.
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Carley Garner predicts that coffee prices could drop to $2. per pound before the end of the year. According to her, high prices discourage consumers. In turn, Digby Beatson-Hird, a coffee market analyst from Avere Commodities, predicts an even greater decline – to $1.80. per pound. It is worth noting that on Tuesday, prices closed at nearly $2.93. per pound.
