Information about how much money flows out of the country and how much flows into it is very important for the zloty exchange rate. The outflow of money from the country means pressure to purchase foreign currencies for PLN, and the inflow into the country means that there is demand for PLN. Well, it is the latter that we are dealing with.
In January 2026, the balance of payments current account was recorded positive balances of trade in goods PLN 1.6 billion and services PLN 13.8 billion – reported the National Bank of Poland. At the same time, there was a negative balance of primary income of PLN 10.2 billion and secondary income of PLN 0.3 billion. It actually works out plus PLN 4.9 billion. In the corresponding month of 2025, the current account balance was negative and amounted to PLN 0.2 billion.
Converted into euros, this is almost EUR 1.2 billion of surplus, and when converted into dollars – USD 1.4 billion. Economists predicted a EUR 300 million lossso this is a big positive surprise.
The zloty reacted positively to these data, which is especially visible in its quotations against the euro, because the changes against the dollar are in the context of the war in Iran and oil prices. And yes compared to the euro, the Polish currency is strengthening by 0.2%. and dropped below the exchange rate of PLN 4.27.
— The war in the Middle East and higher prices of energy raw materials will slightly disturb the Polish economy from its external balance, but the disruption should be on a much smaller scale than in 2022, said Leszek Kąsek, senior economist at the economic analysis office of ING Bank Śląski.
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— We estimate that if the prices of crude oil and variable gas remained at the levels of USD 100, respectively. per barrel and EUR 50 per MWh by the end of this year, then with a comparable level of import of both raw materials as in 2025, import expenses would increase by PLN 26 billion, i.e. by approximately 0.6%, respectively. GDP. For comparison, in 2022, expenditure on oil and gas imports increased by 1.3%. GDP. Additionally, the starting point (projected current account deficit of 0.9% of GDP this year) is low, which in the mentioned black scenario of energy raw material prices and other unchanged factors would mean a current account deficit of 1.5%. GDP this year – estimated the analyst.
According to him, the level of external imbalance in Poland remains low and has no major impact on the zloty rate.
— The resilience of the Polish currency in times of strong turmoil on global markets may also be due to the activity of BGK on the forex market. The further course of the war in the Middle East and the expected decisions of global central banks will be of key importance for the EURUS$ market. The zloty exchange rate will remain under the influence of global factors and decisions and communications from the Monetary Policy Council.
Imports down significantly
According to preliminary estimates, in January 2026, the value of goods exports decreased by 2.7%. compared to the same month in 2025 and amounted to PLN 116.7 billion. However, the value of imports decreased much more, by 6.9%. compared to the previous year and amounted to PLN 115.1 billion. In March, these data will probably be different due to oil and gas prices, but for now we have January data, which are positive.
“The decline in foreign sales in January 2026 was largely influenced by the lower number of working days compared to January 2025. Declines dominated in all main categories of exported goods. The export of investment goods, supplies and means of transport decreased the most. In turn, falling prices on international markets contributed to the decline in the value of exports of agricultural products,” NBP describes.
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In addition to the calendar effect, another factor contributed to the marked decline in imports in January 2026 lowering oil prices and the base effect – indicate bank analysts. Apart from fuels, the value of imports of supply goods and investment goods decreased the most. The increase in the value of imports in this period was limited only to individual items. At the beginning of 2026, it increased, among others: import of passenger carscomputer parts and iron and steel structures.
Trade in services with a shrinking surplus
Trade in services has been maintaining a favorable level of our balance of payments for years. Revenues from the export of services in January this year amounted to PLN 40.5 billion and, compared to the same month of 2025, increased by PLN 2 billion (i.e. 5.3%). The value of service expenditures amounted to PLN 26.7 billion and increased by PLN 2.2 billion (i.e. 8.9%) compared to January 2025.
The positive balance of services in January amounted to PLN 13.8 billion and was PLN 42 million lower than in December and PLN 154 million lower than in January 2025.
“The balance of primary income was negative and amounted to PLN 10.2 billion. Compared to the same period of 2025, it increased by PLN 1.9 billion. The greatest impact on the deterioration of the negative balance of primary income was income of foreign direct investors from their capital involvement in Polish entities. In January 2026, the income of foreign direct investors amounted to PLN 12.6 billion. The amount of the primary income balance was also influenced by the payments of income from portfolio investments and other investments (PLN 1.9 billion and PLN 2.1 billion, respectively),” we read in the NBP material.
