The shield from Deveselu, disputed even from the USA. “It was ridiculous when I insisted on that installation in Romania”
A former adviser to the US defense chief is advancing a nightmare scenario. He says Iran could win simply by resisting attacks, in which case Israel would be in imminent danger. At the same time, he says about the Deveselu shield that it would be useless.
The Deveselu shield should protect Europe from Iranian missiles. PHOTO: EPA EFE
The complications that arose after the attack on Iran are increasingly leading some experts to consider scenarios in which Iran would win the war. Douglas Macgregor is a retired colonel, war veteran, and former senior advisor to the US Secretary of Defense, and is currently a highly regarded military analyst across the Atlantic.
In a podcast by Professor Glenn Diessen, Macgregor argues that a new world is emerging, with a new Middle East in which Iran may win, in which case Israel may not survive. It's a surprising statement, but the analyst presents some arguments for this.
First, he explains that for Iran victory does not mean the destruction of the enemy, in the present case the US military, but simply survival.
The definition of victory given by Douglas Macgregor is as follows: “Iran, on the other hand, has to do nothing but survive. The longer the war goes on, the weaker we look, Israel looks weaker, and Iran looks stronger. And I think Iran will survive. I don't see any evidence that they're going to call Washington for mercy.”
Iran is still resisting
As for Iran's resilience, here almost all experts agreed that it is high. In fact, it is known that the Trump administration was warned by important military personnel that any action against Iran comes with enormous risks and they advised it to resist the temptation to attack this country. Macgregor points out that Iran is a “civilization state” with a history of thousands of years, which gives them a unity and resilience that Americans don't understand.
“You can kill a leader, but you can't bomb a civilization into submission. I've never understood what we're dealing with in Iran. Everyone talks about Iran as a radical Islamic state. Nothing could be more false. Iran is ultimately Persia, and that civilization is much older. Persian thought, philosophy and art have asserted their dominance over the last 30 years. The people of Iran have largely moved away from the rigid form of Islam. On the contrary, many saw him as a decent and humble man, even for those who don't like Islam. We project our values and experience onto others, from the Middle East“, says the expert.
Now, he says, Iran has a huge advantage and is trying to capitalize on it by running on the opponent's exhaustion. Iran has an inventory of about 450,000 missiles, while the US has only a few thousand left in stock.
“We have about 4,000 missiles left in our inventory. Iran has about 450,000. That's a huge difference,” says the American. Iranian missiles have penetrated the famous Israeli Iron Dome, and the situation is complicated:
“Israel's Iron Dome is not working very well. The Iranians seem to be much more technologically advanced than we anticipated. They are capable of delivering missiles with decoys and multiple warheads. The real missile goes by while we are preoccupied with the decoys. It is not going well for us at all. Interestingly, in the West, the media shows a wonderful picture of American and Israeli military success. It is astounding. I don't think that is the picture that the rest of the world perceives“.
Israel is in danger
The most surprising warning statement is related to Israel. The expert recalls that before the Second World War there was a perception that the armies of France and Great Britain were the strongest in the world, but both were crushed by Nazi Germany, and the British escaped occupation only because geography helped them.
“Remember, in 1940 everyone was saying, 'Thank God for the French army, the biggest in Europe, the best equipped'. That disappeared very quickly. And so did the British army. We live in a world where the old era is ending and a new one is beginning. The rules of the future will no longer be written in Washington, but in Asia, Europe and the Middle East, by the indigenous peoples”, claims Macgregor
How Romania would be ricocheted by a civil war in Iran. “A huge crisis would start from China and sweep everything”
Professor Glenn Diesen asks him directly at one point: “You say Israel may not survive. How would that happen? Through military defeat or economic consequences?”
Regarding Israel's idea of acting simultaneously on several fronts, Macgregor criticizes Netanyahu's strategy of fighting on seven fronts simultaneously, ie in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, the West Bank and Iran. The American considers this strategy logistically and humanly unsustainable. He talks about a combination of factors and brings up exhaustion and compares Israel's situation to Ukraine's:
“Go back and listen to Mr. Netanyahu explain his so-called 'seven fronts'. You know, this is not sustainable. Supposedly the Israelis have now mobilized another 100,000 reservists. It will be interesting to see how many of them report for duty. There is talk in Israel of invading Lebanon to go after Hezbollah, because you can't do everything from the air. At some point, Israel will be exhausted and dried up. Today, the question is not whether Ukraine will survive. So, it will survive in some form. But you have to look at the trend lines now“.
At the same time, Israel has become a hated state in the world, including in the European Union. Macgregor goes so far as to call Israel a “pariah state” because of the actions in Gaza, arguing that the hatred built up in the region, from Turkey to the Arab countries and culminating in Iran, will make it impossible for the Jewish state to coexist in the long term without massive US protection.
Coming to the nuclear factor and great power intervention, this is where Israel's risk of extinction becomes even greater, and Macgregor makes a grim prediction. As an ultimate act of desperation, he says there is a risk that Israel may decide to use a tactical nuclear weapon if Iranian attacks continue. Another aspect that would greatly complicate things concerns a possible intervention by Russia and China.
The biggest risk
Macgregor suggests that, faced with a global nuclear war with Russia and China to save Israel, Americans may withdraw from supporting the country:
“Well, if the Israelis decide to use a tactical nuclear weapon or any nuclear weapon with the goal of stopping Iran's incessant missile attacks, I think that will change the situation dramatically. I'm not sure that Israel will survive that. The Russians and the Chinese, at that point, would certainly step in and make it clear to us that if this is not stopped and continues, they will actively join the fight against Israel and us.
And remember, I don't think the Israelis will do anything like that right away. I predict that at some point the Israelis will say, “If Iran doesn't stop, we're going to launch a nuclear weapon.” That's what I think could happen. Well, we have no control over Israel. Israel controls us. That is very clear. So if we can't control Israel and Israel does that, then Russia and China step in. Well, they would step in at a time when we've exhausted our inventories. So how else could we wage a meaningful struggle?“.
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Their conclusion is that Iran is likely to win through “asymmetry and patience,” while Israel risks self-destruction through “military overstretch” and loss of global support.
In other news, the global economy will be hit hard by what is happening now in the Middle East. “I think the destruction of the oil infrastructure is just the beginning. We have evidence that some oil refineries have been hit, particularly in Saudi Arabia. I think we will see more of this. So we are at the beginning of what is ostensibly a long regional war, and we have not even begun to assess the possibility of others getting involved,” the expert says.
What does it say about Romania?
As for a possible European intervention in the war, the American is skeptical. He also talks about the facility in Deveselu, Romania, which was allegedly designed as a shield against Iranian missiles.
“I think the Iranians know that the Emirates and the Saudis have played a duplicitous game, trying to be on both sides. So I don't think the Iranians regret anything and want to make the world feel pain, because they also feel acute pain. So it's not surprising at all. As far as the Europeans are concerned, they knew from the beginning that Iran is not a threat. It was ridiculous when we insisted on that installation in Romania, that installation anti-missile, on the grounds that we are protecting our European allies from an Iranian attack. Nobody believed that.” claims Douglas Macgregor.
