2026-03-11 11:38
publication
2026-03-11 11:38
Iranian forces can hit any ship in the Persian Gulf, and the US Navy does not have enough ships for escort missions, said Salvatore “Sal” Mercogliano, a shipping expert from Campbell University in North Carolina, in an interview for “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”.
Mercogliano says in the Strait of Hormuz In the coming days, the Americans will have to prove that “they can guide ships through it despite the threat from Iranian drones and unmanned surface units.”
The strait is only about 55 km wide, and the Persian Gulf itself is only about 180 km wide in many places. The Iranians can practically land any ship there, the expert said. This is made easier because satellite photos are “widely available” and the ships can also be seen from the Iranian coast.
“Besides, the Gulf is full of small fishing boats. No one can stop a fisherman from reaching for a satellite phone and relaying the position of a tanker,” Mercogliano noted.
“Militarily, the navy defeated the Houthis, but not strategically.”
In his opinion, the US Navy does not have enough ships to conduct an escort mission in the Strait of Hormuz. He pointed out that two years ago five destroyers were needed to protect part of the Red Sea from fighters of Yemen's Houthi movement, and the Persian Gulf is much larger.
According to expert calculations, Houthi fighters attacked 125 ships in two years, four of which sank.
The navy did a great job in the fight against the Houthis. But this does not change the fact that since their attacks, 10 percent ship traffic was diverted around Africa. Insurance has not become cheaper. Instead of paying a million dollars to cross the Red Sea and half a million for the Suez Canal, many shipowners prefer to sail around Africa for half that amount. Militarily, the navy defeated the Houthis, but not strategically, Mercogliano says.
The expert explains that as long as the Iranians export oil from the terminal island of Khark, they have no interest in closing the Strait of Hormuz. Potentially, they could use large-scale sea mines to block it, even from small fishing boats or fast boats. “They are very difficult to detect. The mere threat of their use is enough to completely stop traffic,” the scientist believes.
What if the US occupied Khark?
If the Americans captured Khark, Iran would no longer have a reason to keep the shipping route open, Mercogliano argues. “They could shut it down completely. This would also block crucial food supplies to Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar,” he warned.
According to the German newspaper's interlocutor, “we are not at the critical point yet.” “However, if the problem is not resolved within the next seven days, it will become serious. Liquefied gas supplies from Qatar cannot be replaced, the same will happen with oil, although some countries, such as China, Japan or the USA, may tap into the reserves. This will have serious consequences for prices and the global economy,” Mercogliano believes.
In his opinion, Greek shipowners are unique because “if they sense an opportunity to make money, they take advantage of it.” “If suddenly they can earn $750,000 a day instead of $50,000, they can also pay Filipino or Indian crews several hundred thousand dollars extra. People will risk their lives for this amount. This is how John Fredriksen, the richest man in Norway, made his fortune. During the Iran-Iraq war, it sent tankers to the Persian Gulf. Between 1981 and 1988, 455 ships were attacked there, of which 55 sank” – explains an expert from Campbell University.
In the case of a U.S. submarine sinking the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena off the coast of Sri Lanka, Mercogliano noted that it occurred on a “very busy shipping route.” “Next weekend, insurers announced that they may raise premiums because the US has expanded the war zone by attacking a vessel in the Indian Ocean. The Iranians may now respond there as well. The US government apparently did not take this important aspect into account,” says the shipping expert.
From Berlin Mateusz Obremski (PAP)
mobr/ap/
