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2026-03-10 10:00
US President Donald Trump's statements gave the market hope for an end to the war with Iran. This led to a decline in crude oil prices and a strengthening of the Polish zloty. However, we cannot be sure whether the American leader will not change his mind again in a moment.
– I think the war is basically over. They don't have a navy, they don't have communications, they don't have an air force, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday evening. This statement – although contradictory to many other phrases uttered by President Trump on the same day – gave hope for the quickest possible end to the war with Iran and the resumption of oil and natural gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
There is therefore a chance to avoid a full-blown oil crisis in the world. For Poland and the whole of Europe, the good news was the decline in oil prices, which on Monday cost as much as USD 120 per barrel. On Tuesday morning it was “only” USD 91.40/bbl. This still means fuel is much more expensive than two weeks ago, but the market has stopped considering catastrophic scenarios for now.
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This variety supported the zloty. The euro rate, which in the previous days had been testing the key resistance zone at PLN 4.30-4.31, dropped by approximately PLN 5 in a few hours. On Tuesday morning, the community currency cost PLN 4.2571, and earlier it was the cheapest in a week.
– On Tuesday, we expect market sentiment to gradually calm down, although secondary turbulence from Monday's price changes may still be visible in some asset groups. In our opinion, the rates of the main PLN pairs may move closer to the middle parts of local side trends – wrote PKO BP economists in the morning report.
Everyone knows that the short-term fate of the zloty and many other financial assets is linked to the situation in the Middle East. Hopes for de-escalation of the war in the Persian Gulf are supported by the Polish currency and other risky assets. On the other hand, all it takes is a minor incident or another volte-face from President Trump for markets to panic again.
Especially since nothing has changed in the real sphere. The war is still going on. The US and Israel continue to attack Iran, and Tehran responds with missile and drone attacks on Israel and the Persian Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia is another Gulf country that has been forced to limit oil production. Tankers are still not sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, and approximately 20% of global oil and LNG supplies remain blocked. And in this matter, the plans to release the strategic reserves of the G7 countries will not change much.
It is worth noting that the recovery in the euro-dollar pair was not excessively strong. The EUR/USD rate reached USD 1.1650, which translated into PLN 3.6471 per dollar on the Polish market. Although it is 8 cents less than on Monday morning, it is still definitely more than before the American-Israeli aggression against Iran. For us, a strong dollar means an even stronger increase in fuel prices and a general increase in the costs of imports to Poland.
No major recovery was observed in the Swiss franc market. On Tuesday morning, the Helvetian currency was valued at PLN 3.6504. A day earlier, the franc cost as much as PLN 3.7377 and was the most expensive since autumn 2023.
The British pound cost PLN 4.9191 and was timidly making up for Monday's losses, when its prices dropped from over PLN 4.97 to less than PLN 4.91.
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