WP sources believe that the NIC's findings call into question US President Donald Trump's plan to “cleanse” the country's top leadership and choose a new Iranian leader of his own choosing.
The NIC report was prepared about a week before the start of the US-Israeli operation in Iran. It examines scenarios for the transfer of power after the possible removal of Iranian leaders – both in the case of a narrowly targeted campaign against the Iranian leadership, and after a broader attack on Tehran. In both cases, intelligence concluded that the Iranian military would respond to the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei under protocols designed to maintain continuity of power.
The possibility that the Iranian opposition will take control of power in the country is called “unlikely” in the report.
The White House, when asked by the media, would not say whether Trump was briefed on this assessment before approving the military operation.
WP notes that the report likely did not consider other possible scenarios, including sending U.S. ground troops into Iran or arming the country's ethnic Kurds to foment an uprising. It is also unknown whether the large-scale campaign described in the secret document corresponds to current operations.
The process of transfer of power in Iran, which was predicted in the report, has now actually begun, the media writes. According to a Western security official, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is actively promoting the candidacy of Khamenei's son Mojtaba, but is experiencing resistance from other influential players, in particular the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani.
Context
The Trump administration admits the possibility of a prolonged military campaign, which, according to officials, “has just begun,” WP points out.
The head of the White House said that he wants to personally take part in choosing the next leader of Iran. According to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, this is “the exclusive matter of the Iranian people, and no one can interfere.”
