The health insurance contribution is no longer sufficient to cover the costs of operating the health care system. The contribution capacity of the National Health Fund will drop to only 69% in 2026, while before the pandemic it was 95%.
— Until the pandemic, 95 percent We were able to cover health care expenses from health insurance premiums, but since the pandemic the so-called the contribution capacity of the health care system is declining – said Łukasz Kozłowski, chief economist of the Federation of Polish Entrepreneurs, in the Onet Morning Finansowo program.
The data presented by the economist are alarming. In the pension system managed by ZUS, the contribution efficiency in the next few years will be around 77%. Meanwhile, in the National Health Fund, the contribution capacity will drop to only 69% by 2028.
— That is, only 69 percent. We will be able to finance NFZ expenses from the health insurance premium. We need to completely reformat our thinking about financing pensions and financing health care. Health care is currently a more deficit system to which the state must contribute than pensions, Kozłowski emphasized.
Higher premium or taxes
According to the chief economist of FPP, without an increase in health insurance contributions, the situation will not improve, on the contrary – it will worsen.
— Without an increase in health insurance premiums, this situation will not change, it will only worsen. And if this is to be the case, we must construct the state budget based on this assumption. However, at this point, we are still pretending that the National Health Fund, despite its growing tasks and growing operating costs, and despite the fact that the health insurance premium is what it is, will still be supported by the health insurance contribution. Well, that's not the case, Kozłowski emphasized.
The economist leaves no doubt as to the consequences of not deciding to increase the contribution.
— You can't have your cake and eat it too. These are elements that cannot be reconciled with each other. Or we must have a clearly defined system of how the budget contributes to health care in order to cover this loss from health insurance contributions, he said.
If there is no increase in health insurance premiums, Poles will pay anyway – just in a different way – he argues.
— We will pay for it, but we will not see it as a payment for health insurance premiums. (…) For example, there will be a higher VAT, or tax thresholds will not be increased, Kozłowski warned.
Every year, Poles pay increasingly higher effective PIT, despite the lack of official increases in tax rates – notes the expert. This is due to the lack of indexation of the tax-free amount and the second tax threshold of PLN 120,000. PLN per year.
– There is no escape. Either we will pay higher health insurance premiums, or we will pay higher taxes that we will not even know that they go to health care. This money will not come out of thin air – concluded the chief economist of the Federation of Polish Entrepreneurs.
Spiral of rising costs
One of the factors driving the increase in expenses is the remuneration of medical staff, especially doctors working on contracts. As the economist noted, the lack of a systematic calculation of wages in health care is a serious analytical problem.
— No one in Poland has yet systematically calculated the amount of wages in health care. Taking into account that when it comes to specialist doctors, 75 percent These people are companies that provide medical services to the hospitals where they work, claimed Kozłowski.
He added that the problem is that the Agency for Health Technology Assessment and Tariff System calculates salaries at the level of a single hospital, while many doctors work in two or three facilities. In statistics, one person is treated as several separate people, which underestimates the actual average salary.
Onet Morning. Financially
“Onet Rano. Finansowo” is a weekly program in which Business Insider journalists talk to invited experts from the world of business and politics about current events and issues related to the Polish economy, public finances and the impact of politics on the wallets of every Pole.
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