According to intelligence officers, despite losses in the war against Ukraine, the Russian Federation is gradually implementing plans to build up its military force announced in December 2022. According to the latest data, brigades along the eastern borders of NATO countries are being expanded into divisions and completely new military units are being formed.
On December 21, 2022, at that time Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the Kremlin wants to increase the size of the Russian army to 1.5 million military personnel. He also proposed creating a group of troops in the north-west of the Russian Federation due to “NATO’s desire to increase military potential near the borders of Russia.” The illegitimate Russian President Vladimir Putin then agreed with Shoigu’s proposals regarding further structural changes in the Russian armed forces. At the same time, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine questioned such plans of the occupiers.
Now in Lithuania it is assumed that if the war in Ukraine ends and the Russian occupiers withdraw a significant part of their troops from its territory, new military units of the Russian Federation, including near the Baltic countries, will be almost fully staffed and equipped in the short term. In the medium term, Russia will be able to fully restore its strategic reserves. In the long term – to create an army that will be 30-50% larger than before the war with Ukraine, and relatively modern.
According to intelligence officers, if a peace agreement is concluded with Ukraine, the Russian Federation will be ready for limited operations in the Baltic region in a year or two, and for a full-scale war against NATO in 6-10 years.
Context
Over the past years, the political and military leadership of European countries have several times announced the threat of a Russian attack. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius noted that the Russian Federation could attack NATO in 2029. Former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also spoke about the threat from the Russian Federation. According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Norwegian Armed Forces, Eirik Kristoffersen, NATO has two to three years to prepare for a possible war with Russia.
Bild, citing a secret document, reported that NATO is preparing for a possible attack by Russia on the eastern flank.
On February 16, 2025, the Financial Times reported, citing an anonymous Ukrainian official, that illegitimate Russian President Vladimir Putin was preparing for war against the Baltic countries.
On June 19, Putin called the information that Russia intends to attack Europe an “incredible lie.”
On January 20, 2026, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the leaders of other countries belonging to the Alliance of preparing for war with the Russian Federation.
On February 14, Rutte said that at the moment the Alliance is strong enough and will win any battle with Russia. “If they attack us now, we have to make sure that in two, four, six years the situation remains the same,” he said. A day earlier, answering a question from the editor-in-chief of the GORDON publication Alesya Batsman about whether Putin could launch an invasion of one of the NATO countries, he noted that the Alliance is aware of Russia’s plans.
